INDIANAPOLIS – The 2024 season begins where the 2023 season ended for the Colts.
Eight months ago, Indianapolis came within a whisker of beating Houston at Lucas Oil Stadium for the AFC South title and a place in the playoffs. Since then, the Texans have been everyone’s favorite and the clear favorite in the AFC South.
In comparison, the Colts go unnoticed.
Indianapolis has a chance to establish its presence as an AFC South contender against the Texans at 1 p.m. on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. Hopefully the opener will break the franchise’s streak of 10 consecutive winless seasons, although the Colts drew with the Texans in Houston in 2022.
The season opener offers the first opportunity to take a look at the 2024 Colts. There should be a lot to see.
Anthony Richardson’s education: How the Colts are developing the mind of their young quarterback
Anthony Richardson’s crime remains unknown
1. The offense Shane Steichen designed for Anthony Richardson is still largely unknown. Richardson’s mobility and the threat of Richardson’s mobility are expected to play a key role after the Colts quarterback averaged 5.4 yards per carry as a rookie, and that opens up a world of potential options for a creative mind like Steichen.
2. Jonathan Taylor famously played just two snaps with Richardson last season, but when Richardson was in the lineup, former Colts backup Zack Moss averaged 5.8 yards per carry, as opposed to 4.1 yards per carry when Gardner Minshew was the starter. Taylor is coming off two consecutive seasons plagued by injuries, but his 196-yard performance against Houston in the season finale proved he can still be one of the NFL’s best weapons, and it’s intriguing to wonder what Taylor can do when defenses worry about Richardson making plays with his legs.
Texans injury report
3. Houston spent the offseason improving its pass rush. The Texans signed defensive end Danielle Hunter and interior rusher Denico Autry as free agents, but Houston’s pass rush might not be anywhere near its best when the season opens. Autry, the former Colt, is serving a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, and edge rusher Will Anderson, who is in his second year, returned to practice this week for the first time since early August due to an ankle injury. Anderson will play, but if he is limited, Houston will have to use Jerry Hughes and Derek Barnett more in a tough matchup against Colts tackles Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith.
4. Richardson was inconsistent as a passer in the preseason, following up excellent drives with a few missed shots. In Steichen’s own words, the coach’s ideal offensive philosophy is “throw to score, run to win,” and while Richardson probably doesn’t need to be one of the NFL’s most accurate passers to implement that philosophy, he does need to make plays on the field.
5. Indianapolis has ruled out Josh Downs with a high ankle sprain, leaving a void in the slot. The Colts will likely primarily use rookie Adonai Mitchell to replace him, but Shane Steichen has said repeatedly that he plans to use multiple players in that role, and that may not be lip service. Mitchell has never played in the slot before, and the rookie admitted it’s a difficult role. The Colts can also use Anthony Gould and
6. The Colts believe Alec Pierce is having the best training camp of his three-year career, and Indianapolis could need the third-year receiver to prove them right away against a Texans secondary that can use cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. against Michael Pittman Jr.
7. Rookie edge rusher Laiatu Latu faces a difficult task in his NFL debut. Latu typically rushed from the right side of the defensive line in training camp, a position that would pit him against Texans star Laremy Tunsil, a four-time Pro Bowler. But there may be a solution for defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Latu is versatile enough to rush from any position on the defensive line, and the Colts could use him to get favorable matchups.
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8. The rest of the Texans’ offensive line could be a favorable matchup for Indianapolis’ defensive line. Houston brought in 31-year-old guard Shaq Mason to help stabilize the line in the offseason, but the Texans have questions about three starters: left guard Kenyon Green, center Juice Scruggs and right tackle Tytus Howard. Indianapolis believes its front line is the defense’s strength. Even if Latu struggles against Tunsil, DeForest Buckner, Kwity Paye and Co. should have the opportunity to wreak havoc in the backfield. Stroud had 38 sacks last season and Houston had 47 in total; Indianapolis will have to collapse the pocket on a regular basis against a strong Texans passing game.
9. Houston struggled running the ball last season. A Texans running game that ranked 29th in the NFL in yards per carry ended with the trade for Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon, who had never averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry in the last five years. An Indianapolis run defense led by Grover Stewart and Zaire Franklin should theoretically be able to make Mixon’s life difficult and force Houston into obvious passing situations.
10. The problem is that the Texans prefer to spend their time on obvious passing situations. The main reason for all the praise the Texans are getting is Houston starter CJ Stroud, a budding superstar who just won Rookie of the Year honors. Stroud threw 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions last season, racking up yards despite losing several receivers to injury.
Texans receiver vs. Colts secondary
11. Houston’s receiver corps is much better than it was in the season finale. The Texans signed Bills star Stefon Diggs, got back dangerous Tank Dell, who averaged 15.1 yards per catch last season, and already had Colts hitman Nico Collins, the player who opened the fateful game in January with a 75-yard touchdown. Second-year cornerbacks JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones are expected to start on the outside for Indianapolis, and like Latu, they will be tested immediately.
12. Indianapolis is relying heavily on Nick Cross this season, and the third-year safety will have to prove himself. Cross is expected to start at free safety, and Stroud will likely test him repeatedly after he averaged 8.2 yards per attempt last season. Cross’s main job is to help defuse Indianapolis’ secondary; he must provide some needed support to a young group of outside cornerbacks.
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13. The status of Indianapolis kicker Matt Gay remains uncertain after he underwent surgery to repair a hernia he suffered after the last preseason game. Steichen said the Colts would make a decision on Gay’s status over the weekend; if he can kick, that would be a remarkable recovery. If he can’t play, the Colts would turn to undrafted rookie Spencer Shrader, who has a big leg but has never kicked in the NFL.
14. The Colts signed Anthony Gould to make big plays in the return game, but with the NFL’s new dynamic kickoff, there may not be as many opportunities for returns as the league intended. Nine of 11 kickoffs in Thursday night’s opener ended in touchbacks; Houston could opt to just make the touchback at the 30-yard line.
