Get ready for a short and competitive 2024 holiday shopping season, with mobile, choice, email and social commerce taking center stage.

What follows are five holiday shopping predictions, input from AI, and a report card of my predictions from last year.

54% on mobile devices

In 2023, just over half of U.S. online purchases between November 1 and December 25 were made on mobile, according to Adobe, representing about $113.5 billion. This year, 54% of e-commerce sales during the holiday season will be made on mobile.

Three factors are driving growth: age, marketplaces and buy now, pay later options.

First, there’s the age factor. Gen Z shoppers (ages 18 to 25) are more likely to purchase via a mobile device, and according to Emarketer, about 15% of Gen Z consumers buy directly from social media sites. Social commerce is mobile-friendly, which doubles the impact.

Second, more than half of holiday sales last year came from Amazon and other giant marketplaces. These marketplaces offer native mobile apps that make shopping via smartphone effortless.

Third, BNPL is becoming increasingly popular for holiday shopping. It is often associated with relatively large retailers and marketplaces that may offer a better mobile shopping experience.

5% increase in e-commerce

Early forecasts from Emarketer, e-commerce platform makers and others estimate that holiday shopping volume will grow to $271 billion in 2024, a 23% increase from $222.1 billion in 2023.

Given the contentious US election, inflation and other economic problems, this is too optimistic. I expect a 5% increase this year.

Email volume grows by 25%

In 2024, we will continue to see growth in email marketing.

For example, email infrastructure services provider Sinch Mailgun reported a 16% year-over-year increase in email volume for the Black Friday to Cyber ​​​​Monday weekend last year, and for the entire month of November 2023, volume increased 22% year-over-year.

The holiday shopping season in 2024 is relatively short, at just 29 days, which could make digital advertising more competitive and expensive. Marketers will turn to email to increase sales.

40% of Generation Z use social networks

A recent survey of Generation Z shoppers found that about four in 10 will use some form of social commerce during the 2024 holiday shopping season.

Launched in September 2023, TikTok Shop generated $11.9 billion in gross merchandise volume in 2023. TikTok doesn’t typically release performance results, but it’s reasonable to expect growth. Add in the increase on other platforms, and social commerce could be significant in 2024.

BNPL 9% of retail sales

I expect BNPL to account for 9% of total US online holiday sales for the second year in a row.

I overestimated last year’s BNPL growth, which was 7.4%. However, a recent Experian survey found that about 25% of American consumers plan to use BNPL this year, so I’m sticking with 9% growth for 2024.

In addition, the ratio of store sales to e-commerce sales is stabilizing. In 2023, e-commerce accounted for 34% of U.S. holiday sales, up one percentage point from the previous year. Brick-and-mortar retailers will find more ways to bring shopping to physical stores. One of those ways is to promote BNPL offers in-store.

AI predictions

After completing my list of five holiday predictions for 2024, I asked three generative artificial intelligence tools to do the same, giving the following prompt:

“Based on historical data and current forecasts, we make five bold predictions about the 2024 holiday shopping season for an audience of retail and e-commerce professionals.”

ChatGPT 4.o (by Open AI)

• Social commerce is expected to account for nearly 20% of all online transactions during the holidays.

• Sustainability will become a critical factor for consumers during the 2024 holiday season. Expect a 25% increase in sales at retailers that offer carbon-neutral shipping, recyclable packaging and sustainably sourced products.

• Omnichannel fulfillment will dominate, with same-day delivery being the norm.

• Mobile shopping will outpace desktop and in-store shopping: More than 70% of e-commerce transactions during the holidays will be conducted on smartphones.

Grok-2 Beta (by X)

• Mobile commerce will dominate, with over 60% of all e-commerce transactions during the holiday season being conducted via mobile devices, driven by improved mobile payment solutions and an increase in mobile-first consumer behavior.

• Social commerce will increase. Retailers that integrate seamless in-app shopping experiences could see up to a 30% increase in sales directly from social media.

• Although the Christmas period is structurally shorter, the intensity of shopping activities will increase earlier and more strongly. Retailers will start their Christmas offers as early as the end of October, with the focus on pre-Black Friday offers.

• Personalization through AI and predictive shopping will flourish. Retailers will use AI not only to suggest products, but also to predict what consumers might want before they explicitly search for it. This could increase conversion rates by making personalized “surprise and delight” offers. This could lead to AI influencing over 25% of online holiday shopping.

• As environmental awareness increases, sustainability will become an important factor in purchasing decisions.

Gemini (from Google)

• We will see over 60% of all online Christmas shopping traffic and almost 50% of all online sales being conducted via mobile devices.

• Personalization based on artificial intelligence is becoming mainstream: retailers are using customer data and predictive analytics to create targeted product recommendations, offers and experiences.

• Social media platforms will become important players in the Christmas shopping environment.

• Sustainability influences purchasing decisions. Consumer awareness of environmental and social issues will reach new heights, and shoppers will increasingly choose brands and products that align with their values.

• Supply chain disruptions will continue to occur. Despite efforts to mitigate disruptions, ongoing challenges such as port congestion, labor shortages and material shortages will remain and impact product availability and pricing.

Last year’s predictions

I have been forecasting e-commerce trends and sales for the upcoming holiday season since 2013. This is my forecast for 2023.

Holiday spending increases by less than 5% – correct. The National Retail Federation estimated overall holiday sales growth in 2023 at 3.8%. Emarketer put the growth rate for the 2023 holiday season at 3.9%, while others have estimated as high as 4.9%, below the 5% prediction. For comparison, in 2022, holiday spending in the U.S. increased 8.1% year over year.

9% of retail sales are based on the “buy now, pay later” principle – wrong. While the number BNPL transactions increased 14% last year, but totaled only $16.6 billion – or 7.4% of revenue – according to Adobe Analytics.

Discounts increase sales – that’s right. This prediction was easy, as some estimates concluded that 60% of holiday orders in 2023 included at least one discounted item. As Emarketer put it, “Heavy discounts drove consumer spending in the Cyber ​​Five in 2023.”

Buyers are waiting for these discounts – right. While sales on U.S. Veterans Day (November 11) remained relatively flat from 2022 to 2023, Black Friday retail sales increased 7.5% year-over-year and e-commerce increased about 19% as shoppers waited for Black Friday and Cyber ​​​​Monday discounts.

Impact of generative AI on product discovery – unknown. This prediction is difficult to measure. I couldn’t find any data on how generative searches affected shopping behavior during the holidays.