Should you wait until the later rounds to select your fantasy football quarterback?
The fantasy footballers explain their strategy for drafting a quarterback.
Sport in Seriousness
The NFL season starts in less than a week and that means Week 1 of Fantasy Football is just around the corner.
However, Week 1 is the most unpredictable part of the NFL season because fans have no idea how teams will operate, how certain players will be used, or how new coaching staffs will change plays. What if we draft someone who absolutely won’t play? What if all the reports from training camp lied to us and that surprise running back you drafted way too early ends up being his team’s RB4?
But don’t worry. Week 1 is often about safety. You want to use players who pose the least risk. Of course, that’s not always possible. Some teams are thinner than others and require a little more foresight. So here’s a player at each position who should either start or sit on the bench in Week 1 of the 2024-25 NFL season.
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Players starting in Week 1
- QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let’s be honest, you should only use Mayfield if you are in dire need of a quarterback or are in a very strong league. He is not a top-12 quarterback and Week 1 is all about starting your guys. However, if you are in a position where you need a quarterback, Mayfield could be a great choice.
The Washington Commanders were the worst pass defense in the NFL last year, allowing the most passing yards and most passing touchdowns of any team in the league while managing just eight interceptions. The absence of former offensive coordinator Dave Canales will certainly hurt the Bucs offense in the long run, but in Week 1, Mayfield and the Bucs should be pleased by a lackluster Commanders defense.
- RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
As good as the Bills’ defense has been in recent years, last season they were not a very efficient run defense. They allowed 4.6 yards per carry, sixth worst in the league. Conner himself was great at the end of last season, scoring over 20 PPR fantasy points in four of his final five games. In the one game he didn’t, he scored 17.9. Sure, the Cardinals drafted Trey Benson this year, but Benson won’t pose a serious threat to Conner’s workload until late in the season at the earliest.
- WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
All the reasons I gave this week for Baker Mayfield as a starting option also apply to Godwin, but Godwin has a little more potential. Before 2023, Godwin developed into the Buccaneers’ best receiver, ahead of even Mike Evans. With 2023 offensive coordinator Dave Canales gone, there’s a chance Godwin can return to his 2022 form, when he caught 104 passes in 15 games. In PPR leagues, Godwin has a lot of potential.
- TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
It blows my mind that someone like Evan Engram, a top-five tight end last year, is entering 2024 as a low-end TE1. He’s a pass-catching machine and he’s going up against the Miami Dolphins, who were one of only eight teams to allow 5.5 or more pass catches per game to tight ends last season? I’m in.
The argument against Engram is that his situation is different. Brian Thomas was drafted in the first round and will certainly take some of Engram’s targets away. Will he? Sure, he’ll take some away, but more than Calvin Ridley took away last year? Even if Engram finishes this year with only 80% of his 2023 targets, he would still record 114 targets, which would have ranked fifth in targets among tight ends last season.
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Players who will miss Week 1
- QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
The Jets have a very good secondary. That alone would prevent anyone from starting Purdy in Week 1. But when you factor in the fact that Trent Williams may not play in the team’s Week 1 game, you really start to question Purdy’s viability.
Losing Williams would actually be a big loss for Purdy. Not only is Purdy 0-2 starts without Williams at left tackle, but he also threw just two touchdowns and four interceptions in the two games Williams missed last year. Against a very good Jets secondary, Purdy could start the 2024-25 season on a very bad foot if Williams doesn’t protect his blind side.
- RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
The New England Patriots, as bad as they are, still have a reasonably solid defense. In 2023, they were insanely strong against the run, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, the best mark in the league. Moss may be the Bengals’ lead back, but he’s not a pass catcher and hasn’t even managed to catch two balls per game in a single season in his entire career. If Moss is going to be valuable against New England, it’s likely through sheer volume or through the air.
Moss’s backup, Chase Brown, averaged 14.4 yards per pass reception on screens last season. Brown may not get the running work he needs on first downs, but he could get some good opportunities in the passing game and was effective as a pass receiver in his rookie season. If Moss doesn’t get those opportunities, he’ll struggle in Week 1.
- WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
Hopkins hasn’t practiced in a month due to a knee sprain. He’s also 32 years old. Although Hopkins was able to salvage his 2023 season after Will Levis became the team’s starting quarterback, he’s just not in a good position to start the regular season. He’ll be fine after Week 1, assuming he doesn’t suffer any further setbacks. But Week 1 against Jaylon Johnson and the Chicago Bears? I wouldn’t feel so good about that.
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- TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
In 2023, there was only one team that allowed opposing tight ends fewer than 3.8 pass catches per game: the Cleveland Browns. They were also the only team that allowed opposing tight ends fewer than 40 yards per game.
There is a bright side here, and that is that opposing tight ends still got into the end zone relatively easily against Cleveland. And Ferguson had the most red zone targets of any tight end in the NFL last year. Still, everyone knows where Dallas’ biggest weaknesses lie.
Their backfield is atrocious and Cleveland’s plan of action should be to force Dallas to run the ball as much as possible, even at the goal line. Ferguson will likely be a touchdown-dependent option in Week 1 and Cleveland should know not to give Dallas many good opportunities through the air. That makes for a bad combination.
