Top line
Vice President Kamala Harris overtook President Donald Trump on Tuesday night to become the bookmakers’ favorite for the November election after a strong performance in the first presidential debate.
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a watch party after … (+)
Key data
According to the Election Betting Odds Tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from four different markets, bookmakers now give Harris a 51.8 percent chance of winning, while Trump only has a 46.9 percent chance.
This represents a significant shift in Harris’s favor, whose chances have increased by more than four and a half percentage points in the last 24 hours, while Trump’s chances have fallen by four percentage points.
Players on crypto betting platform Polymarket, who had been betting heavily on a Trump victory over the past two weeks, now believe that both Harris and Trump have a 49% chance of winning.
On the British betting site Smarkets, bookmakers predict that Harris now has a 51.55 percent chance of winning – last week it was 47.5 percent. Trump’s chances, on the other hand, have dropped to 46.3 percent.
On PredictIt, the only platform where bettors gave Harris better odds than Trump before the debate, the vice president extended her lead and now has odds of 56 cents per share (roughly a 56% chance), compared to Trump’s 47 cents per share.
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Surprising fact
While betting markets suggest the election is still fairly close, there is a strong consensus among bettors that Harris won the debate. Bookmakers at Polymarket believe that Harris has a 98 percent chance of being declared the winner of Tuesday night’s debate in consolidated post-debate snap polls.
Large number
2.7 percent. That’s Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to the weighted average from FiveThirtyEight.
tangent
Unlike the other betting markets, participation in PredictIt is only permitted to US citizens who are at least 18 years old. Earlier this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a ban on all election-related betting on the US derivatives market. The agency’s proposal came after PredictIt sued it for attempting to ban the platform from accepting bets on the presidential election – after previously allowing it to do so.
More information
Election betting markets again tend towards Trump (Forbes)
Polls Trump vs. Harris 2024: Harris with 1 point lead – while her lead stagnates before the debate (Forbes)
