The country’s more than 70 million welfare recipients may want to temper their expectations about the size of their pension increases in 2025. According to a forecast released Wednesday, retirees can expect an average monthly increase of $48, or 2.5 percent.

The cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2025, which is based on the inflation rate, is expected to be lower than last month. 2.57% Calculationsaid the Senior Citizens League (TSCL), an advocacy group for older Americans. The updated forecast came hours after the government reported that Prices rose by 2.5% in the twelve months to August, as inflation continues to ease.

The planned increase is not yet official, as the Social Security Administration typically sets the COLA for the following year in mid-October. A 2.5% increase would equate to an average monthly benefit of $1,968 and would appear on most recipients’ benefit checks in January.

Although a 2.5% increase would be less than the 3.2% in 2024, it is roughly in line with the historical norm, which has averaged about 2.6% over the past two decades. The COLA was as low as 0.0% in 2010, 2011, and 2016, and as high as 8.7% in 2023.

The Social Security Administration sets its annual COLA based on inflation during the third quarter, July through September. The agency takes the average inflation rate for this period from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which tracks spending by working Americans.

If this inflation rate is higher than the same period of the previous year, the COLA is adjusted upwards to reflect the difference.

“We are committed to a COLA of at least 3% to ensure seniors have enough to feed themselves and live with dignity,” Shannon Benton, executive director of TSCL, said in a statement. “About two-thirds of seniors rely on Social Security for more than half of their monthly income, and 28% rely entirely on it,” Benton added, citing a TSCL study.