In Virginia, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by eight percentage points among likely voters. Virginia is a state where the Trump team is hoping to swing the vote red again after defeats in 2016 and 2020.
The latest Washington Post-Schar School poll, released Tuesday ahead of the two candidates’ debate in Philadelphia, found Harris leading Trump in the Old Dominion State, 50% to 42% (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points).
The poll highlights a significant shift at the top of the Democratic ticket in Virginia since Harris dramatically replaced President Biden as her party’s nominee.
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Vice President Kamala Harris is eight percentage points ahead of former President Trump among likely voters in Virginia, according to a new ABC News poll ahead of Tuesday’s presidential debate. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images.)
According to a Fox News poll in June, Biden and Trump were tied. Biden won Virginia by more than 10 percentage points in 2020. Hillary Clinton beat Trump there by more than five percentage points in 2016 – although Trump later won the presidency.
No Republican presidential candidate has won Virginia since former President George W. Bush was re-elected in 2004.
Republicans have made progress in the state, with Governor Glenn Youngkin becoming the first Republican to be elected governor since 2009 in 2021. They were also successful in the 2022 midterm elections and the state’s 2023 midterm elections.
Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, said the poll also shows that Trump does not have a significant lead on any of the issues covered in the survey.
“What’s notable is not only Harris’s large lead, but also that Trump has no issue advantage, unlike national polls where he has some lead on the economy, immigration and crime,” Rozell told the Washington Post.
“Trump’s path to the presidency therefore does not go through Virginia.”
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The poll is a welcome boost for Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Tuesday’s ABC News presidential debate, the first presidential debate between the two candidates. An ABC News sign will be installed in the media archives at the Pennsylvania Convention Center. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Jeff Ryer, a spokesman for the Trump campaign in Virginia, said the poll does not match what people on the ground say.
“These polls in no way reflect what we are hearing at the door and on the phone from the tens of thousands of Virginia voters who have contacted our thousands of volunteers,” Ryer told Fox News Digital.
“And since Democrats have confirmed they have 25 offices and 132 staff on the ground in Virginia, that’s obviously not what they’re hearing either.”
According to the poll, conducted September 4-8, 55 percent of female voters in Virginia would vote for Harris, compared to 37 percent for Trump.
Harris performed well among Virginia’s black voters, receiving 73 percent of their support.
In addition, likely white voters favor Trump at 50% versus 43% for Harris. White likely voters with college degrees lean heavily toward Harris at 57% versus 36% for Trump, while white voters without college degrees support Trump at 64% versus 29%.
Harris performed best in the Washington, DC, suburbs at 60%, the Northern Virginia suburbs at 56%, and the Richmond area at 55%. Trump’s support is strongest in the more rural parts of central and western Virginia at 60%, while the Tidewater region of eastern Virginia leans more toward Harris at 49% than Trump at 42%.
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According to a poll conducted by The Washington Post and Schar School, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Trump in Virginia, 50% to 42%. (Getty Images)
In terms of popularity, 53% of Virginia residents have an unfavorable impression of the former president, while 39% have a favorable impression. Harris is more popular overall, with 49% positive and 42% negative views.
The poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,005 registered voters in Virginia, with 65% reached by live callers on cell phones, 14% by landlines and 21% by texting to the Internet.
31% of respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 28% as Republicans. 30% of participants were independent.
