Week 2 of the NFL season begins with an AFC East duel between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. Both teams won in Week 1.
The Bills outscored the Dolphins with Josh Allen at quarterback, posting an 11-2 record against Miami, winning both games last season (and clinching the AFC East title).
The Bills are underdogs away from home on Thursday, but are considered slight favorites and can win the division again (+175), just ahead of the Dolphins (+185) and the New York Jets (2-1).
Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Dolphins -3
Money line: Bills (+120), Dolphins (-140)
Over/Under: 48.5
Distribution of the first half: Dolphins -0.5 (even), Bills +0.5 (even)
Total score of invoices: 23.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Dolphins total points: 25.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
The props
Passing by
Total passing yards of Tua Tagovailoa: 274.5 (Over/Under -130)
Tagovailoa Allen total passed touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Josh Allen’s total passing yards: 249.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
All passing touchdowns total: 1.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Rush
James Cook’s total rushing yards: 59.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Allen’s total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Reception
Tyreek Hill – Total receiving yards: 99.5 (Over 0/Under -130)
Jaylen Waddle – Total Receiving Yards: 69.5 (Over/Under -130)
Dalton Kincaid – Total Receiving Yards: 44.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Keon Coleman – Total Receiving Yards: 44.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Khalil Shakir: Total Receiving Yards: 39.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Favorite selection
Bills +2.5 (even), Bills +8.5 alternate line (-300): Josh Allen dominates the Fish. Buffalo is 11-2 against Miami with Allen as the starter. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have struggled to beat playoff teams and are just 1-6 against Bills coach Sean McDermott with Tua at quarterback (McDermott is 8-5-1 ATS against Miami). Last week, the Bills pulled off an impressive comeback win against the Arizona Cardinals, while the Dolphins narrowly eked out a 20-17 win at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even without Stephon Diggs, the Bills ranked second in EPA per dropback in Week 1. Both teams are having a short week, but the Dolphins could be impacted more by their injury situation, with running back De’Von Achane suspended for one game and Raheem Mostert already out. — Anita Marks
Tua Tagovailoa OVER 274.5 yards (straight): Tagovailoa plays better at home and will have to throw a lot more due to his running back’s injuries. — Markings
Josh Allen OVER 34.5 rushing yards (-135), Allen anytime TD (-115): Allen averaged 38.4 rushing yards per game in his career and over 50 yards per game against Miami. And the Bills like to use Allen’s legs in the red zone, especially since Joe Brad took over as offensive coordinator. Allen had two rushing TDs in Week 1. — Markings
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information
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Patrick Mahomes improved from +475 to +375 and remains the favorite for the MVP title, while Josh Allen jumped from fourth to second place in the odds, improving from 10:1 to +550.
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Allen’s record against the Dolphins is 11-2, including the playoffs (6-6-1 ATS). The Bills won both meetings last season.
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Tua Tagovailoa is 18-9 ATS (21-6 SU) at home in his career.
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The Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in division games under Mike McDaniel.
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The prime time unders are 71-44-1 over the last three seasons.
