The Miami Dolphins host their league rivals Buffalo Bills for Thursday Night Football.
The game’s total score is 48.5 on DraftKings and the Dolphins are favored at -2.5. The bookies are expecting some fireworks in this game.
The biggest news coming into this game is the status of De’Von Achane. Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out, and we should see more from Jeff Wilson, Jr. and possibly rookie Jaylen Wright in this game.
Achane is dealing with an ankle injury and it looks like he won’t be used until closer to game time. We don’t have any markets on Miami runners yet, but if Achane goes, I’ll focus on his pass reception. Achane caught seven passes for 76 yards in Week 1 against the Jaguars. The versatile threat could cause some problems for the Bills defense. The Bills allowed six catches for 64 yards in Week 1, which is an 85.7% catch rate for Cardinals runners.
Also keep an eye on Jeff Wilson, Jr.’s props, but keep in mind that the Bills are a challenging opponent, as they only allowed 63 yards to opposing runners in Week 1. A JWJ anytime touchdown prop looks enticing at +175-, but grab him quick before he moves.
Tyreek Hill under 100.5 receiving yards (-110) at DraftKings
Follow me at your own risk. I’m pricing in Hill’s receiving yards against Buffalo on Thursday night. Is that crazy? Maybe.
After all, he managed a 130-yard game on Sunday after lying facedown on the concrete in handcuffs. But history teaches that the smartest play is the under.
In seven regular season games against Buffalo, Hill failed to average more than 82 receiving yards in a single game.
He has had more than 100 receiving yards in two of three postseason games against the Bills, the last in 2021 when he played for the Kansas City Chiefs.
In 10 games against Buffalo, the Cheetah has only exceeded that limit twice. The Bills have limited Hill before. I bet the schedule will do it again.
Khalil Shakir over 40.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel
Shakir ran 26 routes in the slot on Sunday and caught all three passes aimed at him for 42 yards and a touchdown.
Miami slot defender Kader Kohou ranked in the bottom five in catch rate allowed (87.0%), forced incompletion rate (1.8%) and open target rate (72.2%) in 2023, according to PFF. In last season’s Week 18 game against Miami, Shakir had 105 receiving yards, with two gains of 20+ yards and one gain of 40+. It’s conceivable that Shakir, the veteran wideout on this team, could eclipse that prop with a catch.
Josh Allen over 275+ passing yards (+195) at DraftKings
I love this potential 2-1 payout for Allen, who completed 81% of his passes and averaged 340 passing yards and 42 rushing yards per game with seven total touchdowns against the Dolphins in 2023. Here’s hoping most of those yards go to Shakir.
Bookmakers see the Bills as underdogs at +2.5 and a total score of 48.5. This suggests that the Bills will have to get the ball in the air even in a run-heavy offense led by Joe Brady.
The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.
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