There is one immutable law in college sports: #Pac12AfterDark cannot be stopped.
The latest twist in conference realignment came just before midnight ET on Thursday, when it was announced that the Pac-12 was crawling out of the coffin with the addition of four new schools. For a league that became famous for wild late-night developments on the football field, this was typical.
The official announcements were made on Thursday morning.
In the zero-sum game of realignment, it’s a triumphant day for Oregon State, Washington State and the withered husk of the Pac-12. After being doomed a year ago, they’ve risen again. It’s not a return to the top tier, but it’s a damn good comeback.
It’s an exciting day for Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State. Decades of effort and money spent to prepare for this realignment have paid off.
It’s a hopeful day for some other schools outside the power conference looking to join them. At least two will be invited to reach the NCAA-mandated minimum of eight members for an FBS league, and possibly even more. Dream easy.
And it’s a devastating day for those left behind in a suddenly depleted Mountain West Conference. Maybe one or two more will be added to the new Pac-12, but most of the Abandoned Eight won’t be.
One New Mexico fan put it this way on X Thursday morning: “It was inevitable, but it still hurts. New Mexico is being left behind, and as a graduate, it’s heartbreaking to watch. It feels like we’re getting beat in a race we could never win. It’s disappointing, frustrating, and makes me question why I still care about college sports.”
That’s how it works in college sports these days. Eat or be eaten. Every step has winners and losers and the stakes are high. No one should be trusted to look after anyone but themselves.
There is always a new wave of schools trying to move up the hierarchy – from mid-major conference to high-major conference, from low-major to mid-major conference, from FCS to low-major conference. So this year we reached 134 FBS teams, whereas 15 years ago it was 120. But FBS membership is going to get much more expensive in the near future, which could limit schools’ chances of moving up. The self-service store cannot take on new passengers forever.
Let’s focus on the winners first.
The Pac-12 brand is associated with status. And money. That’s why it was kept alive. That’s why it was worth fighting for in court. Oregon State and Washington State have sued the departing schools for tens of millions of dollars in conference revenue and to keep the conference name. The Conference of Champions may not win many more championships in the future, but it still exists and – as of Thursday – has regained some of its appeal.
These two schools showed patience and determination in a time of acute crisis by staying together in a two-team ghost league this year and planning their next move. Instead of being accepted into the Mountain West, they went on a rampage. They had more to offer the top tier of that league than the Mountain West had to offer them.
That they’re doing this the week that Oregon State hosts Oregon and Washington State plays Washington — revenge rivalry games against schools that have threatened their existence — is a poetic flourish. Beavers and Cougars fans will feel a renewed sense of pride at these pregame tailgates.
The four Mountain West draft picks should also be feeling great today.
Boise State’s rise has been breathtaking. It wasn’t long ago that the school was a junior college, and in the 1990s it was an FCS athletic program, its only calling card being the blue artificial turf at the stadium. But a series of inspired coaches, from Dirk Koetter to Dan Hawkins to Chris Petersen, have taken the program to new heights. When Petersen stayed for eight seasons and flirted with a national championship, new heights were reached in a fast-growing market.
Colorado State hasn’t had a winning season in football since Sonny Lubick’s 10-consecutive winning seasons from 1994 to 2003. But Fort Collins is a fast-growing city that now has more residents than Boulder, and the school committed to building a new stadium that opened in 2017. The Rams have hosted several top-conference opponents since then — including Oregon State and Washington State — and Colorado is the host on Saturday for a heated rivalry game.
At Fresno State, the fighting promise of the Pat Hill era continued with successful runs by Tim DeRuyter, Jeff Tedford (twice) and Kalen DeBoer. The Bulldogs have posted 12 nine-win seasons in the 21st century, building a loyal fan base in California’s Central Valley.
And at San Diego State, a great football streak from 2010-2021 solidified the program and put it on the path to building its own new stadium, opening in 2022. That, combined with continued excellence in men’s basketball, culminating in a Final Four appearance in 2023, met the performance requirements. The Southern California location made it a no-brainer for the new Pac-12.
So who’s next?
Stanford and California aren’t backing down after joining the Atlantic Coast Conference. They signed a rights-transfer agreement that secures them financially but also represents a dramatic retreat in terms of athletic competition and academic profile. There’s a reason they pushed so hard to join the ACC last year — because they didn’t want to be part of a Pac-12 survival league.
UNLV is glaringly absent from Thursday’s expansion. Their location in a large, centrally located market and as a logical hub for football and basketball championships make the Rebels a natural choice. But there could be political headwinds if UNLV tries to split from state school Nevada. They could sink or swim together, and it will be interesting to see if the Pac-12 absorbs the Wolf Pack to secure Las Vegas.
As for the rest of the Mountain West, Air Force has the prestige of a military academy and a national brand of sorts, which could make it desirable, though the Falcons could also rekindle their flirtation from a few years ago with the American Athletic Conference, home to Army and Navy. Wyoming and New Mexico are the flagship universities in states without major pro sports, but Wyoming is sparsely populated and New Mexico is a football graveyard. Utah State is in a fast-growing state but is the No. 3 college brand by a wide margin. If the Pac-12 had wanted San Jose State, it probably would have gotten it today. Hawaii is a nice destination, but there isn’t much sports there and the commute is exhausting.
The new Pac-12 could try to plant a flag in the state of Texas, but there’s no guarantee it can persuade AAC members UTSA or North Texas to switch leagues. Texas State or UTEP would be more willing, but perhaps less attractive. It seems unlikely that Tulane, Memphis or South Florida would abandon camp for what appears to be a lateral, far-flung move.
The only thing that is certain is that there will be further movement. The reorientation of the conference never rests.
But today we celebrate the survivors of the Pac-12 and the aspirations of the Mountain West. And we commiserate with the Abandoned Eight, who recently faced an assault on their ranks.
