Week 2 of the NFL season begins tonight with a primetime showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. Let’s examine where the smart money is leaning using our VSiN betting splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.
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The Bills (1-0) beat the Cardinals 34-28 in their season opener, but were unable to hold their ground as 6.5-point favorites. The Dolphins (1-0) also narrowly beat the Jaguars 20-17, but were unable to hold their ground as 3.5-point favorites.
This Thursday Night Football line opened with Miami as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched, undefeated teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or bet. Despite this relatively split ticket count, however, we’ve seen the Dolphins go from -1.5 to -2.5. Additionally, most bookies are pushing Miami from -2.5 to -115, suggesting a potential further rise to the key number of -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all when the tickets are relatively equal, because bookies theoretically have even action on both sides and don’t need to adjust the price. So based on the line movement toward Miami, we can conclude that the bigger, sharper, more reputable bettors are putting the points with the Dolphins at home. Miami gets 55% of the spread bets but 60% of the spread dollars, a clear “low bets, higher dollars” betting discrepancy.
Historically, we’ve seen favorites do well in home games on short weeks. Since 2006, favorites on Thursday Night Football have gone 91-75 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI. Those who want to follow Miami’s sharp move but are wary of betting the points in what could be a close game can instead bet on the Dolphins at -140. Favorites on Thursday Night Football have been 123-45 (73%) head-to-head with a 4% ROI since 2006. When two undefeated teams face off in Week 2, the favorite has been 39-11 (78%) head-to-head with a 19% ROI since 2006.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 51 to 48.5. This move is notable because the public is betting on the over (73% of bets), but the total has fallen, suggesting a strong reverse line move on the under. The under receives 27% of bets but 36% of dollars, a sharp contrarian betting split along the lines of “low bets, higher dollars.” Primetime unders are 161-110 (59%) with a 14% ROI since 2019. Outdoor division unders are 224-191 (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2021. Bill Vinovich, the head referee, is historically 99-68 (59%) on the under. The forecast calls for low 80s with cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds at Hard Rock Stadium.
Player props to consider
Khalil Shakir over 40.5 receiving yards (-110): Shakir caught three passes for 42 yards in the season opener against Arizona. Shakir has exceeded that number in four of his last six games. He has exceeded that number in four of his last five road games. In his last game against the Dolphins, Shakir caught six passes for 105 yards in Miami. Shakir is expected to avoid Jalen Ramsey and instead face the Dolphins’ nickel corner, Kader Kohou.
James Cook 19.5 receiving yards (-110): Cook caught three passes for 32 yards in the season opener against Arizona. In two games against Miami last season, Cook averaged 32 receiving yards. Cook could look forward to a favorable matchup against Miami’s linebacker team. The Bills are also underdogs in a high-total game, meaning they may have to play catch-up, leading to more offensive power and garbage yards down the stretch.
