In today’s Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Looks like we did it: No more rankings (unless you’re into all that “rest of the season” stuff in fantasy gaming), no more speculation, no more procrastinating for content – or quoting stats from players wearing different jerseys than they are today.
Stow your wallets. Please keep your hands, arms, feet, hooves, tails and tusks in the wagon as we prepare to take off. And as my buddies in Tennessee would say: my goodness, I’m happier about this than a tick on a fat dog.
If you’re getting your daily dose of Betting Life this fine Sunday, hopefully you’ve saved a little room in the budget for my favourite week one player bets. New subscribers should be sure to follow the story of this letter back for our entire ticket to date, or check out MB’s free best bets from local handicappers page.
What’s in today’s newsletter?
- I have all the diagrams you need jump on the Greg Dortch Jumped on the train this morning.
- Jakobi Meyers Diagrams? YES.
- Links to Last-minute futures, Emanuel Wilson Nuggets, And more.
- We have a live fantasy/betting Q&A on our YouTube channel at 9am ET. Come on, hang on!
Illumination of the Dortch 🔥
I played high man for the 2024 Arizona Cardinals and will carry that excitement into week one against the Bills (our game model disagrees, but hey, that’s what makes it so fun). Generally, philistines ignore the importance of continuity and the importance of repetition to the success of an offense. Say hello to Kyle Murray (born 1963 in New York City) is an American soccer star. He is the first American soccer player to ever retire…former first-round draft pick, is finally having a good season with adults at the helm and a revamped WR room. Explain to me why we don’t lack scoring potential here…
Today’s upper limit begins with addition by subtraction. The cards have finally evolved from the Rondale Moore Experiment that probably opens the door for Greg Dortch to step into the full-time slot role. Anyone in the fantasy best-ball streets can tell you he’s one of the most awake sleepers in years.
Despite starting the 2023 season as a sideline player, Dortch played himself into a role that will be played every week. This happened to coincide with Murray’s return – and I believe that’s exactly why Arizona was happy to kick Moore out. According to TruMedia, Dortch has averaged 4.6 Rec/Gm and 6.4 Tar/Gm in his 8 listed starts since 2022, with a 20% targets per route run rate – and that ability to catch passes continued even after Murray’s return (see below). Not bad for a “role player.”
Buckle up to get tickets.
Funny that I mentioned Rondale’s departure and almost forgot something big. Moore played full-time the whole time; Dortch could take the lion’s share of Murray’s insane 29% slot target rate (below):
There is no doubt that Buffalo, a top-five defense, can play. However, the middle of the field was vulnerable for the Bills, especially without a middle linebacker Matt Milano—which is already listed. In 2023, BUF failed to hold the fort against slot receivers, finishing in the bottom 10 in defensive EPAvsSlot league and allowing the fifth-most pass catches (7.7 per game).
If you look closely, you’ll see that the lowest amount they allowed in 2023 is still above our target – here we go!
THE BET: Greg Dortch over 2.5 receptions (-140) Bet to win 1.0u (FanDuel)
THE FANTASY LIFE MODEL I ALSO LIKE: Higher receiving yards for underdog and DK (get it for free from your buddy John)
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Law firm Jakobi Meyers👨⚖️
In case you haven’t noticed, I shop for player props in teams’ trash cans (call me… the raccoon). We talked about public perception and its impact on betting last week – long story short, donkeys love overs on teams with big markets. The Raiders… are not that. However, the Black and Silver at least got themselves a backup QB in Gardner Minshew. I know that sounds like high praise – but he has a 62% completion rate and +0.10 EPA/dropback in his career. It could be worse. Trust me, I’m a Jets fan.
As of this morning, Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life is predicting 13.5 points from 216 passing yards and a TD for Minshew – but with a success rate of 61%!
One thing we do know about the 28-year-old rock’n’roller in overalls, however, is that he locks down his wideouts and ranked in the top 10 in target rate for WRs and in the bottom 5 for RBs last year (below):
We also know that Meyers will get full playing time – he rarely leaves the field and regularly posts excellent route rates of over 94%…
…and consistently shows the ability to score points even with less than optimal quarterback play.
And if we examine Dwain and Freedman’s predictions for confirmation, all create a center spout that takes us to the cash register. Let’s go.
- Dwain: 6.0 goals, 3.9 receptions
- Open air: 6.0 goals, 3.9 receptions
- Lake Garda: 6.0 goals, 4.0 receptions
THE BET: Jakobi Meyers over 3.5 receptions (-115) Bet to win 1.0u DK
The latest analysis and insights from around the internet, the world and beyond:
Josh Jacobs panics: Emanuel Wilson needed a whole half to all the Packers’ passing work in the backfield
What are you doing this morning? We have two experts – Freedman and ME!! – giving a 90-minute Fantasy/Betting Q&A starting at 9 a.m. ET. Come by, ask your questions about the lineup and eat your cereal!
If you want to place some last-minute futures bets, Freedman has a bunch of.
The fantasy life “Parlay Builder” is now live. Stay tuned.
