Lower chance of rain over the weekend, but uncertainty regarding the development of storms off the coast remains high

MYRTLE BEACH, SC (WMBF) – The latest data suggests that the chance of rain is lower over the weekend, but the forecast for early next week remains highly uncertain and depends on the path of a low pressure system offshore.

The latest data today suggests that this weekend will be more rainy than rainy, with the chance of rain lowered to 40% for Saturday and 30% for Sunday.

The chance of rain has decreased this weekend, but isolated showers are still possible.(WMBF)

The weekend will still be mostly cloudy, with occasional sunshine and a few short showers. Afternoon temperatures will rise to below 27 degrees on both days.

Gusty winds with speeds up to 30 miles per hour are expected starting Sunday, especially near the beach.

During the weekend, all eyes will be on a low pressure system off the coast that could gradually take on tropical characteristics.

According to the National Hurricane Center, this weekend, “a non-tropical low pressure system could form along a frontal boundary several hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast. Thereafter, the low pressure system could develop subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast of the Carolinas.” The probability of such a development has increased to 40%.

Strong winds in the upper layers of the atmosphere and dry and cool air nearby will help prevent the system from developing too strongly. The development of a strong tropical storm or hurricane is highly unlikely.

The probability of tropical development has increased to 40% and there is a tropical or subtropical low pressure area... — The probability of tropical development has increased to 40% and a tropical or subtropical depression could form later this weekend or on Monday.(WMBF)

Where exactly this developing low pressure system moves will determine which areas receive the most precipitation. Currently, a move into North Carolina is the most likely scenario, but a move in or near the Grand Strand is not out of the question.

The GFS maintains the heaviest rainfall north of the region, but further shifts are likely.(WMBF)

An axis of heavy rain will form near the track the system moves through on Monday and Tuesday, and this will most likely be in North Carolina, where heavy rain is possible. As the track shifts further toward the Grand Strand, locally heavy rain will become more likely.

The EURO models maintain heavy rain directly north of the region, but could shift in other directions... — The EURO models suggest heavy rain is likely north of the region, but could also move in other directions. Check the forecast regularly.(WMBF)

Check back over the weekend for further changes.

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