Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Rivals in the flyweight division of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Alexa Grasso And Valentina Shevchenko will face each other again this weekend (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024) at UFC 306 at The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The flyweight title situation is strange right now, as this is the third consecutive fight between these two champions. Even the fights themselves have been a bit odd. Through nine rounds of this rivalry, “Bullet” has won more rounds than her opponent, but she is also taking the hardest hits and ending up in the worst positions. Perhaps this is simply the reality of age catching up with the lifelong combat athlete, while Grasso is undoubtedly at her peak and firing on all cylinders.

Regardless of the outcome, this has to be the last immediate match between these two. There are too many worthy challengers lined up, a problem the flyweight division has never seen before! Manon Fiorot has secured a title shot, but Rose Namajunas, Maycee Barber and Natalia Silva make excellent arguments that the division is ready to move on.

So that’s all. Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each sportsman:

Grasso vs. Shevchenko betting odds

Victory by Alexa Grasso: -135
Alexa Grasso via TKO/KO/DQ: +700
Alexa Grasso via submission: +350
Alexa Grasso by decision: +200
Victory of Valentina Shevchenko: +114
Valentina Shevchenko via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
Valentina Shevchenko via submission: +1100
Valentina Shevchenko by decision: +180
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Grasso wins

Grasso is a boxer with a solid punch in her hands. Over the years, her grappling and wrestling skills have improved tremendously, resulting in a versatile champion who can finish on the ground or standing up.

After nearly 45 minutes of fighting together, we know how Grasso wins this fight. She has proven to be excellent at exploiting Shevchenko’s mistakes and riskier techniques, particularly the spinning back kick and headlock throw. Despite losing several minutes of the fight, Grasso has landed the heaviest strikes and consistently put Shevchenko in greater danger of being finished.

The best way to create such moments is pressure. Grasso can’t rush recklessly into counterpunchers’ attacks, but she tends to hit harder in longer exchanges. If Grasso is methodical and consistent and doesn’t allow Shevchenko to keep the volume down, she’ll likely land more often and hurt the former champion.

How Shevchenko wins

Shevchenko is probably the best counter-fighter in the history of women’s MMA. “Bullet” controls her reach meticulously and can severely limit her opponent’s options at distance and force her to play her game.

As mentioned, Shevchenko has been very successful in these fights. It’s all about avoiding mistakes and making good decisions. Most importantly, stop using the headlock throw! It’s a bad technique! I wrote an entire article about its drawbacks and risks, and Shevchenko keeps hurting herself by relying on it. The spinning back kick, on the other hand, is a great technique with many applications – Shevchenko just needs to be careful to use it wisely.

Otherwise, the jab has always been Shevchenko’s best weapon. I’d really like to see her focus on getting the jab in more than once and finishing with powerful left leg strikes to the thigh, body and head. If Shevchenko is in range to score with her jab – which has repeatedly snapped Grasso’s head back in these fights – she should be able to build on it with hard kicks.

With jab, left kick and reset you can control the dance perfectly and defeat Grasso.

Grasso vs. Shevchenko Prediction

Overall, I think Shevchenko is the better fighter. Grasso is a good athlete in her prime, but I don’t see anything particularly special about her game. However, as we see time and time again in MMA, nothing is more valuable than a young, strong fighter with a lot of confidence.

I expect another close fight here, but the bet is definitely on Grasso. Statistics and trends don’t lie: older fighters rarely do better in rematches. Every six months that pass is an advantage for Grasso and a disadvantage for Shevchenko. Grasso can theoretically still improve, while Shevchenko is far too far along in her martial arts career to make any significant adjustments.

If Shevchenko wins, it would be a great testament to her professionalism and work ethic in the later stages of her career. However, it is more likely that Shevchenko will win a few more rounds but will end up being injured badly enough for the Mexican champion to retain her title.

Prediction: Grasso by decision (+200)

LIVE! Watch UFC 306 PPV at The Sphere on ESPN+ here!

STILL UFC AT THE SPHERE! The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will host a one-off pay-per-view (PPV) spectacle on Saturday, September 14, 2024, in honor of Mexican Independence Day during the Riyadh season, an unlikely mashup capped by the bantamweight main event between the reigning champion, Sean O’Malleyand sliced and diced contender for 1st place Merab Dvalishvili. In the UFC 306 championship co-headliner, current flyweight titleholder, Alexa Grassowill settle her score with fellow Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 32 coach Valentina Shevchenko in the final fight of her epic 125-pound trilogy. The UFC 306 PPV main card (see here) will also Brian Ortega Comparisons Diego Lopez, Raul Rosas Jr. Comparisons Aoriqilengand much more! This action from “Sin City” is a must-see! UFC306 Start time is planned for 6:30 p.m. ET (Preliminary round ticket) and 10pm ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of this EPIC face-slapping action!

Remember MMAmania.com delivers LIVE round by round, stroke by stroke coverage of the entire UFC 306 fight card Right Herestarting with the early ESPN+ The “Prelims” games will take place online and start at 7:30 p.m. ET (Simultaneous broadcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the start of the pay-per-view (PPV) main card at 10pm ET (also on ESPN+).

To get the latest and greatest UFC306: “O’Malley vs. Merab” News and Notes Be sure to check out our comprehensive event archive. Here.