Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Odds, full fight preview and prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) standout bantamweights Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili will finally face each other TONIGHT (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024) at UFC 306 inside The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.

“Suga” has lived up to the hype. Since his Contenders Series From his debut, it was obvious that O’Malley was a standout talent with a knack for kickboxing. There were some initial hurdles for the young talent, but once he met Petr Yan in the cage, he was noticeably better. Since then, he has only gained momentum, establishing himself as the division’s sharpest distance fighter.

Dvalishvili’s rise to the top of the bantamweight division has been slower but somewhat more consistent. During his current 10-fight winning streak, “The Machine” has been remarkably dominant, defeating world-class fighters through sheer speed and grueling grappling. It’s not a fighting style that often leads to a win, but Dvalishvili’s opponents often look like they’d rather be anywhere else when the final bell sounds.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili betting odds

Sean O’Malley’s win: -135
Sean O’Malley via TKO/KO/DQ: +150
Sean O’Malley by submission: +1800
Sean O’Malley by decision: +400
Win by Merab Dvalishvili: +114
Merab Dvalishvili via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
Merab Dvalishvili by submission: +2000
Merab Dvalishvili by decision: +165
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How O’Malley wins

I don’t think there’s any secret to how O’Malley wins this fight. The guy is one of the best strikers on the entire UFC roster and he’s going up against a guy with pretty robotic kickboxing. We’ve seen Dvalishvili hurt on the feet before and we’ve seen O’Malley completely knock out numerous opponents trying to close the distance.

It’s easy to imagine “Suga” tricking Dvalishvili with a sharp right counter or a knee right to the middle. The question is whether the champion can make that contact. If Dvalishvili is wrapped around his leg or in the clinch, that won’t happen, so preventing that first contact is really key here.

To keep Dvalishvili from even getting his grappling going, footwork is key. O’Malley needs to keep his distance by changing stance and direction while showing off his longest-reach attacking technique, like his jabs and teeps. If Dvalishvili tries to advance, that’s O’Malley’s chance to land a big punch and then escape at an angle and get back into that movement.

Dvalishvili is not the type to stay at arm’s length, so if O’Malley moves away early, the wrestler will push forward and give the knockout artist a chance.

How Dvalishvili wins

Similar to the above, it’s very easy to see how Dvalishvili wins this fight. If “The Machine” gets his hands on O’Malley, he’ll have more recognized wrestlers trapped in his cycle of takedowns, strikes, and mat returns.

We’ve seen Dvalishvili stay at distance and then fight, and we’ve seen him sprint out of the starting blocks to close the distance immediately. The latter definitely seems like the right move here. There’s no reason to let O’Malley develop a sense of distance or timing for nothing – Dvalishvili shouldn’t waste any time getting to his fight.

The key for Dvalishvili is to avoid getting hit in the early stages. He doesn’t need to win the first round in a 25-minute fight, but if he can feint and pounce on his feet, Dvalishvili can begin to slow O’Malley down, making him less dangerous and more vulnerable to future takedowns.

Position in the cage will also be important. O’Malley is fast, but if he is forced into the fence he will not be able to completely avoid contact with “The Machine”.

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Prediction

I expect dominance. The question is from whom…

This is one of those fights where the winner is going to win dramatically. Either we get a brutal knockout from Sean O’Malley or we get to watch Dvalishvili beat one of the sport’s biggest stars like a rag doll for 25 minutes. They are both so much better than the other in their respective areas that a back-and-forth fight seems unlikely. Once someone takes control, they are unlikely to let it go.

I have to side with the striker. Historically, straight-line grinders like Merab Dvalishvili hit a hard ceiling at some point. There’s nothing tricky about his approach to fighting, and the best usually punish those habits. Dvalishvili has been able to will his way through that ceiling so far (like against Marlon Moraes), but O’Malley is just sharper and better suited to take his head off than outclassed opponents.

I think O’Malley hurt him in the beginning, and I don’t think “Suga” will absolve him of responsibility.

Prediction: O’Malley by KO (+150)