Total targets and touches are important, but not as important as market share. Targets is primarily a receiver stat (though there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the running back’s currency.
What we do is simple. For receivers, market share is the number of targets divided by the team’s number of pass attempts. For running backs, it’s the number of touches divided by the team’s number of plays (to be clear, not the team’s number of touches).
Snap counts, depth of target, and type of touch (running back receptions are much more valuable than RB carries) are also important, but generally not discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for evaluating waivers and trades.
Here’s the list — be sure to select the current week, but all weeks of the season are archived, so you can get a multi-week sample of a player if you need it. Also note that as the season progressed, I put a lot of thought into making these stats weekly, rather than season-wide. The goal here is to react quickly to current trends. Annual stats just smooth everything out to a more meaningless mean. Remember what our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says: “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Recipient targets
Cooper Kuppis of course at the top of the list and should be at or near the top of the weekly WR rankings until Puka Nacua returns in a month.
Jameson Williams is the biggest news though, as he barely made the top 100. He finished sixth at 31.1%. Given his speed and playmaking ability, he sits comfortably ahead of Xavier Worthy (who was not ranked due to the five-target minimum criteria) in my rankings. If you can trade Worthy for Williams, do it immediately. Remember, Hollywood Brown is expected back starting Week 2.
Allen Lazard was Aaron Rodgers’ preferred receiver in his final year in Green Bay. He was ranked 9th in Week 1. Mike Williams has only had a few snaps and probably won’t be playable for a few weeks. Even then, Lazard will start in three-WR sets. I would bid up to 35% of my FAAB on Lazard. Minimum bid: 17%.
Even with Justin Fields as QB, George Pickens is a top-20 WR if he finishes well inside the top 20 in market share, as was the case in Week 1.
Isaiah probably was the No. 1 tight end. He basically functions as a wide receiver, so you should offer big if he’s available. I’d give at least 50% of FAAB. Money is overrated.
If you Courtland Sutton They expected a 27% market share and it got 29% in week 1, so it’s definitely a hold.
I don’t know what the Giants see in it Wan’Dale Robinson but he was on par with Sutton and is widely available on waivers. I think they’re much better off with the far more efficient Darius Slayton and the explosive Jalin Hyatt leading the secondary. But it’s not my team. I’d bid 20% on Robinson, who, like all of the Giants’ receivers, is unlikely to score touchdowns (Daniel Jones has more pick sixes than touchdown passes since 2022).
Tyler Lockett looks like an ideal WR4 in PPR as he came in at #17. He was the only Seattle receiver to make the charts. It’s a mystery why no one wanted him. He was drafted as a boring backup but now he’s a boring starter. Boring players can win when you complete a lineup.
Brock Bowers has to start as a tight end if he is close to 25%, like in Week 1.
Adonai Mitchell could/should have had 135 yards on three catches, including two touchdowns. But Anthony Richardson did not recognize these completely open opportunities. He will use them in the future instead of randomly throwing them away with Alec Pierce. To me, Mitchell and Pierce are the same thing. To me, they’re more like 10% bids that come down to all or nothing.
Ray-Ray McCloud And Greg Dortch are the small engines that could get over 25% each. McCloud’s day was marred by extremely low pass volume. Dortch has the roommate/boyfriend story with Kyler Murray working for him. I’d say 10% for McCloud and 20% for Dortch.
Jahmyr Gibbs tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown in targets and that’s very optimistic if you add Gibbs to your roster.
Touches of the running back
I received some backlash in my first week’s “Takeaways” column regarding Rhamondre Stevenson is now a top-10 RB, or at least close enough to be in that category. He finished at No. 2.
Jordan Mason was reportedly told he would start on Friday. And there were reports that Christian McCaffrey won’t play in Week 2. So Mason is about RB5 even if the 49ers decide to throw a lot more than they did against the Jets they just bullied. If Mason is a free agent, McCaffrey’s manager has to get him, whatever the cost.
At 38% James Cook was something no one really expected. But it makes sense considering how the Bills played in the second half. His snap rate was also higher than in any other game last year.
Najee Harris was one of 17 running backs with over 30% touches/snaps, just an incredible number. No other PIT RB was chartered.
This list also contained alleged 50/50 back Tony Pollardwhich is more like 65/35 with Tyjae Spears (13.1%), which wouldn’t even be an aggressive offer if he were a free agent.
David Montgomery just missed the 30% mark. Jahmyr Gibbs was at 25%. Both are very playable. Montgomery, like last year, has the better draft value.
De’Von AchaneWith over 25%, he is one of the top 10 RBs. Period. There is no debate about that.
Tank Bigsby is probably the best waiver signing in a very weak first round. My model predicts a max bid of 48% of FAAB. But I’d stick with 25%, as I think that gets him half the time. But you know your league’s waivers better than I do, so pick your range.
The other waiver wire adds may be Jaleel McLaughlin (22% to 44% of the FAAB after outperforming Javonte Williams) and Ty Chandler (22% to 44%, who has a better but older RB in Aaron Jones.) Consider these bid recommendations as minimum/maximum in general leagues.
Bucky Irving should have been drafted but is widely on the roster. I’m OK with a 33% FAAB bid because I think he has a 50% chance of getting the job outright by Halloween and that even if he doesn’t, he has a zero RB ceiling. Plus, Rachaad White could get injured, in which case Irving would probably be a 60/40 guy with all the passing work we want.
(Top photo of Tank Bigsby: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)
