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Levitan’s DFS Cash Lineup Review: Week 2


Levitan’s DFS Cash Lineup Review: Week 2

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I play about 60% of my bets each week in “cash games”. Cash games are any contest that pays out about 50% of the entrants, such as head-to-head, double up, or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as possible each week and then supplement that with other cash games.

Every week I will review my cash game lineup here. Sometimes I lose, but hopefully I win more often. Either way, I will post it here and give you my thoughts on it.



Levitan’s DFS Cash Lineup Review: Week 2

I thought this was an extremely straightforward week from a cash game perspective. Puka Nacua’s injury in Week 1 occurred after Week 2 prices had already been released. The CMC news came to light after Week 2 salaries were also announced. And then we had a whole bunch of RBs and WRs that were simply undervalued.

MY MUST-PLAYS
* I would have considered playing Cooper Kupp for $7,600 against the Cardinals even if Puka Nacua had been healthy. But with Nacua (knee) out, Kupp was a heavy favorite. Anything under 30% of Kupp’s targets from WR kingmaker Matthew Stafford would have been a surprise. And the matchup/game environment in Arizona was top-notch, too.

* Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers will play one of the most efficient running systems in the NFL, no matter who the running back is. The proof of that was provided on Monday night when Jordan Mason was used brilliantly and tore apart the Jets’ impressive defense. Mason for only $5,200 and his role as a real workhorse in this offense was simply unbeatable.

* The absence of Christian McCaffrey (calf) also gave Samuel Deebo a big boost. Not only did Jordan Mason have significantly fewer targets than CMC, but Deebo has historically operated as an RB2 in those spots. This is especially true at the goal line, as his TD rate per run is wild. Deebo ($6800) was our second-best salary-adjusted value among the WRs on the list, with only Kupp ($7600) being better.

* Breece Hall didn’t benefit from injury, he was just mispriced at just $7,400. I thought there would be outcomes where Hall handled 100% of RB opportunities with a very RB-friendly QB in Aaron Rodgers. While the matchup wasn’t necessarily ideal, Hall’s talent + passing role + volume was always a no-brainer here.


MY DESIRED GAMES
* I could have played Jayden Daniels ($6,200) or even Daniel Jones ($5,200) at quarterback if I needed the money. But salary cap space was not an issue on this list, so I was more than happy with the safety of Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) for his home game against Joe Burrow. Although Mahomes’ chances of reaching his maximum have dropped as defenses try to force him under the maximum, the Chiefs’ extreme red zone passing rate and overall passing rate keep the minimum-maximum combination high.

* My first instinct when looking at the salaries was to play Rashee Rice ($6700). I expected a ton more layup targets from Mahomes to provide a solid base and then the YAC for the ceiling. But as the week went on, it became harder for me to find a fade Kyren Williams. Avoiding running backs that play 90% of the snaps in RB friendly schemes in good playing environments for only $6800 is not my style of play with cash, so it was painful, but I decided to go with Kyren over Rice in Flex.

* Given all of the “must haves” listed above, I knew I had to punt at a WR spot. The options were clear to me: Allen LazardAndrei Iosivas or Tyler Johnson. I didn’t want four Rams, so Johnson was out of the question. I preferred Iosivas over Lazard because he was the player with the better playing environment and better quarterback. Iosivas should also play 100% of the snaps again with Tee Higgins (hamstring) out. But in the end, I didn’t think it was worth the $500 it would have taken to get Yoshi.

* I certainly did not love Colby Parkinson. But I expected the entire tight end position to fail this week – we had zero positives in the projection on any TE on this list. So it was a no-brainer to just go with the cheapest viable option. I thought that was clearly Parkinson ($3100), who would benefit from both Puka Nacua (knee) and Davis Allen (back) being out.

* I wanted one of the BroncosPatriots, Jaguars or Chargers at D/ST. I would have been happy with Commanders or Giants as well. This lineup had exactly $2800 left, so I had a choice between Broncos and Patriots. Of course, the Seahawks were expected to have more dropbacks, which is usually my way of doing coin flips at D/ST. But I figured if the Broncos could get ahead (they were only 2.5 point underdogs), Justin Fields’ error proneness would lead to a bigger max. The Broncos also gave me some options for late swaps if I needed them.

Results Week 2
I won my close 1v1 calls in Week 1. This week, things didn’t go so well. Rashee Rice beat Kyren Williams, Andrei Iosivas steamrolled Allen Lazard, and Patrick Mahomes couldn’t get away from Jayden Daniels or Daniel Jones. In a week where there was so much overlap (as expected), I can’t pass this one up and expect a win.

It’s a little frustrating because there were a lot of plays I would have made on a tighter week. JK Dobbins, Malik Nabers and Chris Godwin would all have been major cash plays if there weren’t so many other absolute must-haves. And of course, all three of them absolutely went through the roof.

But no excuses. Given the composition of the board, I was happy with what I played.

Results since the beginning of the year
Week 1: 147.38 points, 98.6% of direct duels won
Week 2: 116.94, 21.1% of head-to-head games won

* Note: Winning percentages not Include ties

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