close
close

Kyler Murray did not have a “perfect” passer rating; it should be higher than 158.3


Kyler Murray did not have a “perfect” passer rating; it should be higher than 158.3

.

.

A long time ago, in a galaxy perhaps far, far away, someone in the media decided to call it a “perfect” passer rating when a quarterback hits the threshold of 158.3 in the system that became part of the NFL in 1973.

The league, for its part, no longer describes this value as perfect and instead correctly says that it is the highest that the current system allows.

The fact is that most people don’t know why this system was introduced, what it is supposed to represent, let alone understand how the numbers work.

While some may consider me a numbers freak, I’ve never gone to the lengths of compiling reams of statistics like some in baseball, or in the NFL, where the analytics industry is now deeply embedded in the league.

However, I have always been fascinated by numbers, especially when it comes to things that don’t make sense. And that’s the problem with “perfect” pass ratings.

A little history is important. Before its introduction 51 years ago, passers were rated based on their placement in various categories, the same ones used today to calculate passer rating. For example, the players with the most passing yards got one point and so on down the list. Second place got two points, whether they were one yard behind first or 100 yards behind. The other problem was that the historical lists had to be completely rewritten after each season.

So it came about that a committee worked for two years on a new method for evaluating passers (not quarterbacks).

It is important to note that the system was not designed to rate passers in games. There were no computers/software like there are today and for many years to update the rating after each pass play.

The result was a system with a formula that assigned individual scores for each percentage in a category, with a maximum of 2.375. Once these four numbers were known, they were added together and converted to the 100-point scale.

However, since it was intended for seasons, a maximum percentage was set for each category based on league records at the time. It also set an average rating out of 1,000 to reflect the times, particularly in terms of pass completion percentage, which was 50.0 at a rating of 1,000. The average pass completion percentage today is often around 65.0, reflected in the higher ratings of those days, as well as fewer passes intercepted.

But those peaks are the problem. The pass completion percentage is 77.5. No matter what that percentage is for a player in a game, he cannot receive any more rating points for a percentage above 77.5. The average yards per attempt peaks at 12.50; for touchdowns, it is 11.9. The interception rating is 2.375 if no attempts are made in a game.

There have been games in recent years where a monster game by a quarterback would have resulted in a rating in the 200s.

As for Murray, his completion percentage on Sunday was 81.0, his average per attempt was 12.7 and his touchdown percentage was 14.3, all above the high percentages for those categories.

Using these percentages, Murray would have a score of 170.6 rather than 158.3.

I’ve had a 24-page booklet published by the NFL for decades that lists the corresponding rating points for each percentage. I’m sure nobody uses that anymore.

Howard BalzerHoward Balzer

Howard Balzer

Howard BalzerHoward Balzer

Howard Balzer

However, it would be easy for the league to instruct the Elias Sports Bureau to open up the system and allow it to freely determine the viewing figures.

It wouldn’t affect that many games. Murray is the 61st player with a 158.3 rating who would be raised. There are many others with less than 158.3 game ratings who would be higher because a big game in any of the categories would boost their passer rating.

To be honest, I have been lobbying the league for this, but it has fallen on deaf ears.

But I won’t stop trying.

For more Cardinals and NFL coverage from Cards Wire’s Jess Root and others, listen to the latest Rise Up, See Red podcasts. Subscribe on Spotify, YouTube or Apple Podcasts.

This article originally appeared on Cards Wire: Kyler Murray didn’t have a “perfect” passer rating; it should be higher than 158.3

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *