(Statistics need to be updated with last week’s results)

Here are our insights into Ellis Park Derby Day, which features 6 stakes events. What a day the team at Ellis have put on for you. Truly remarkable. Truly remarkable.

1.: 4-8/7/1-10-(11)//2-5-6…Brie is in town (4) is a 2-year-old son of Speightstown and is the winner of the old lid lifter at the “Ole Pea Patch” which is now the “soon to be infield lake”. This one gets the blinkers off after two attempts in a row and the run over the turf last time was almost a win. Has enough speed and may not be caught this time. Although? Barn is 0/10 on the second attempt over the turf. Hmm. Art Fair (8) ran over the grass here last time and was well beaten while tiring after a mile. Here the gap is reduced and the stable wins by 0.25% when he returns as beaten favourite. Watch out here. I place the 8 – watch out – across the whole board and then nest the 4-8 in the Exactas. Strict. I type the 4-8 above/below the 7 in two smaller units.

2nd place: 4-7-8/5/3/6…Our Shenanigan (4) is a newcomer from Brad Cox’s stable who comes here this summer with a win rate of 0.23%. That’s 2% less than the annual average. Wow. That shows how tough this Ellis Park meeting is and has been. But? He’s a 0.22% winner on the first try and the rider is red hot and has won for this stable in the last 29 races with 0.17%. Watch out. Liam in the dust (7) is a newcomer to a stable who is 0.13% likely to win on debut. He gets a frontrunner and this one comes from a dam who has 3 runners and a stakes winner from her first 3 foals. Sharp works at KEE. Impulse purchase (8) is another horse from the Brisset stable and the mother of this horse has 4 winners out of 5 starters. Sharp also works for this horse. Breeding here. First class. I bet on the 8 – on win/place/performance and then box these 3 solidly into the exactas. Solid.

3rd: 9-12-2/8-5-3/10-11-(15)/7…beach feeling (9) is my “Surprising game of the day.” This one is listed 12-1 in the ML and could finish first. Came from way back, missed the opener last year and then finished third on July 5th. First time out on grass and this one is bred for it. I love the rider change here and this one could easily take off. Only the sky (12) has finished the last three races and will surely find a way to get to the top soon. Top riders up. Barn is winless at this meeting. Really? Divine Light (2) Luis Saez is taking him back to riding after the debacle at Churchill Downs in June. He ran superbly in the three races last year. He’s throwing away the last one. I will bet on the 9 and then double the winning bet. I will box the three highest numbers in the exactas. I will enter the 9 over/under the 12-2-8-5-3 in two smaller units.

4th: 5/1-8/(13)/11/3-10/2-4-12…The first “Key game of the day” comes here with Hedwig (5). This three-year-old son of Maclean’s Music drops down to a lower class after a stakes race at Santa Anita last time out. On Lasix for the first time and ran a fast half-mile on August 1. Speedster may not stop here. I bet on the 5 – with a whopping 10:1 in the ML – and then double/triple the stake for the win. For the exactas, I bet the 5 over/under 1-8-13-11-3-10. More on the 1-8 than on the rest.

5th: 6-2-8/3-10/9-11-12/4-5-7…RA “Cowboy” Jones Stakes…The first of six consecutive stakes events begins here in an event made for the bettors. I’m tipping the returning Saudi krone (6), Who is the favorite in the Major League? But the four-year-old colt who won nearly $3 million for trainer Brad Cox doesn’t have to win this race either. Mr Wireless (2) has reached the finish line in 15 of 20 attempts in his life and almost won the last time. Had problems at the start of the G1 and wasted all chances. Injunction (8) chooses a trainer who has won 0.32% of 84 starters this year and has two wins in a row. Is fast. Can also apply pressure early. I bet on the 6 and double the bet for the win. But? I bet the 6-2-8 in the exactas.

6th: 7/1-2/5/3-6//4…Ellis Park Derby…The next “Key game of the day” comes here with Catalytic (7). This three-year-old colt finished second to Fierceness in the G1 Florida Derby earlier this year. He lost by 13 points that day but still finished second. Had a tremendous performance in the last race and can both start and follow. Will be ridden by Luis Saez. I’m all in. I generally bet on the 7 and double the winning stake. For the exactas, I bet the 7 over/under the 1-2-5-3-6. More on the 1-2 than on the rest.

7th: 4-6/7/5/1…Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes…Politically Correct (4) has never lost and may not today. Won two in a row early in his career, including the Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs. Is fast. Can come from behind. Looks solid. Three Echoes (6) has never missed the mark and has two solid performances at Saratoga. Chance here. I’ll bet on the 4 across the board and then put the 4-6 solidly in the exactas. I’ll type in the two above/below the 7 in two smaller units.

8th: 3-2/8-9-7-10/5-1…Debutante Race…Rich City Girl (3) won the first start of his career here on July 6 as favourite and did so with style, speed and ease. Can win these races again here. Trainer has won with 0.30% of 159 races this year. One I like. Woman Worldwide (2) won here on July 4th as clear favorite against MSW. It will be difficult to win this game. I bet on the 3 across the line and then double the winning bet. I will bet the 3-2 in a solid Exacta and then enter these two in two smaller units using the 8-9-7-10.

9th: 1/4-6/5/8/2-3/7…Audubon Oaks Stakes…The penultimate “Key Game of the day” comes here with the Railbird — Tarifa (1). This girl was my clear favorite to win the Kentucky Oaks G1. Didn’t perform as well as I wanted on the day against Thoropedo Anna, who has made a name for herself this year. But has 4 wins in 6 career starts. Comes back into the circle here in my opinion. I always bet on the 1 and double the bet on the win. For the exactas I bet the 1 over/under the 4-6-5-8. More on the 4-6 than on the rest.

10th: 3/2-1-5-4/9/7-8… Groupie Doll Stakes…The final “Key game of the day” comes here in the decisive stakes of the meeting and with Taxed (3). This 4-year-old mare has hit the boars in 9 of 15 starts and won 2 of 4 at this distance. Had a great run in the G2 last time. Watch out. Could be a tough nut to crack here. I bet on the 3 across the board and double the winning bet. I will enter the 3 over/under the 2-1-5-4-9 in the exactas. More with the 2-1-5-4 than with the rest.

Good luck and all the best / Gene