When the leader of the mercenary organization known as the Wagner Group led an operation that reached within 60 miles of Moscow just over a year ago, it cast a bad light on Russia’s defense strategy and its leader, Vladimir Putin.

Now a similarly risky situation has arisen. The Ukrainian military has reportedly advanced 35 kilometers across the Russian border and taken control of a Gazprom gas-measuring station. If Ukraine can hold onto this strategic area, it could significantly boost its morale and negotiating position and send a clear signal that it does not want to live under a dictatorship again. This bold move also directly challenges Putin’s authority and reputation.

“Nobody expects this from Ukraine,” Elina Beketova, a democracy expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told me in a conversation. “It shows that Ukraine can still win. Putin seems weak and disorganized. There is a reluctance to escalate, but such an escalation could lead to better negotiating positions for Ukraine. I am not sure about Putin’s moral compass. But he feels that he can do whatever he wants based on weak reactions. Now Western democracies understand Ukraine’s desire to be a free people.”

While Ukraine has remained tight-lipped about its military plans, videos show that a 1,000-strong army has taken over parts of southwestern Russia north of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. It is a bold move – one that allows Ukraine to trade the territory it holds for the easternmost parts of Ukraine that Russia now owns. It is also the first time foreign troops have entered Russia since World War II; the Wagner Group operated inside Russia.

President Biden and Vice President Harris support the defense of Ukraine, as do the vast majority of European countries. However, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is on the side of Russia and Putin, which seems ironic given President Reagan’s characterization of the former Soviet Union as an “evil empire.”

Russia had previously captured Kharkiv and Kherson, but Ukraine has regained control of large parts of these areas. However, the situation remains unstable due to ongoing military conflicts. Before the tensions, Ukrainians with the appropriate ID cards could easily travel from these border towns to Russia to work or visit family. Now this is too unsafe.

“We are preparing new measures to further constrain the Russian state,” Ukrainian President Zelensky said in a video on X, adding that Ukraine now has the weapons to attack Russia and protect itself.

Democracy versus dictatorship

One question that now arises is how President Putin will react. Recall that the Wagner boss, who was heading for the Moscow border, was shot out of a plane along with a handful of his buddies. In Russia, Putin operates with impunity. He has also attacked the civilian population of Ukraine: on Friday, the Russian army attacked a supermarket in Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, killing 14 people. Meanwhile, the day before, Russian forces dropped a glide bomb on a settlement in Selydove in Donetsk Oblast, killing two people.

Putin has ruled Russia for nearly a quarter of a century, longer than any other head of state. The Russian elections are a farce, so it is unclear whether he enjoys widespread support. What he does have is fear – the possibility of throwing anyone who challenges him into horrific prisons. But Putin underestimates the power of democracy and believes that diversity and free speech undermine governance.

His memory is short: In 1989, the Soviet Union collapsed because Eastern Europeans chose freedom. That’s why democracy fellow Beketova said Ukraine had no choice but to go on the offensive. Since 2022, Russia has hit the country hard, without Ukraine’s efforts at self-defense deterring Russia. Cutting Putin down to normal size will work.

She said the Ukrainian military attacked the Kursk region – the Russian territory that Ukraine reportedly attacked – to save the metropolis of Sumy. Russia has long shelled the city, making it uninhabitable to live there. Ukraine has tried to evacuate its citizens, although the government may have argued that an invasion across the border would give it more bang for its buck.

In fact, the Ukrainian armed forces have released a video showing the takeover of a Gazprom-owned gas transit point just across the border. As a result, natural gas prices in Europe are rising rapidly.

“The Russian army is not as strong as people think,” says Beketova. “Ukraine struck where it hurt and where Russia did not expect it. But Ukraine must maintain control in order to retain its new bargaining power.”

Ukraine is discreet, hinting that there is more to come. In the short term, the goal is to end the war and take back the land that Russia stole from Ukraine. Beyond that, the goal is to drive a stake through the heart of a ruthless dictatorship.