The Royals-Tigers series could shake up the MLB standings, and Luis Arraez's winning streak comes to an end

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The opening game between the Tigers and the Royals was everything we hoped for. Also: Ken on the Orioles’ offensive problems, a look at the Phillies’ suddenly shaky rotation and Yu Darvish is back. I am Levi Weberhere with Ken Rosenthal — Welcome to The Windup!

Instant classic: Tigers come closer thanks to thriller

Thank you, schedulers. With the Tigers 2 1/2 games out of a wild-card position and chasing the second-place Royals (among others), we couldn’t have asked for a better matchup this week.

The Tigers opened the series with a 7-6 win – a clear victory, even if that clear victory came from the pen of a crazed madman.

“I saw more tonight than at almost any other game I have ever been to,” said Tigers commentator Andy Dirks. He wasn’t exaggerating – you can read Cody Stavenhagen’s recap here or watch the highlights to see some of the chaos.

But there was one play that stood out in particular, and it came in the second half of the seventh inning, when there was one out left and Detroit was already up 7-6.

With pinch-runner Garrett Hampson on third base, Bobby Witt Jr. — who had already hit a grand slam and recorded his 200th hit — hit a fly ball 227 feet down the right field line. Not an automatic attempt to score the tying point, but not an automatic hold, either. Hampson’s sprint speed of 29.9 feet per second ranks in the 99th percentile for the sport, while Tigers right fielder Matt Vierling ranks in the 50th percentile for his arm strength.

But there was another factor: Two innings earlier, Royals coach Vance Wilson was ejected after a heated argument with umpire David Rackley. The decision to keep the runner was therefore made by infield coach José Alguacil, who stepped in for Wilson.

And that was it. No more runs were scored and Detroit held on to the win. Combined with the Twins’ 4-3 loss to the Guardians, The Tigers are now only one and a half games away from a playoff spot.

More Royals: Despite last night’s loss, Britt Ghiroli says the Royals are good for baseball because they are doing something every team should do: try to win.

Ken’s notebook: Baltimore’s offense collapses at the wrong time

On the final weekend of last season, the Rangers lost three of four games in Seattle and lost the AL West title to the Astros in a tiebreaker. The 90-win Rangers then had to fly across the country to face the 99-win Rays in the wild-card round. At that point, few would have believed Texas would win the World Series.

The 2023 Diamondbacks, who reached the series after winning just 84 games, are another reminder not to write off any team heading to the postseason. But the Orioles, who will likely qualify as the American League’s best wild card, no longer look like a team capable of doing big things.

Since July 7, the Orioles are 27-33. Their trade deadline has been a mixed bag. Their injury list remains long. Their chances of winning the AL East have dropped to 11.5 percent, according to Fangraphs. It looks like they’re in for an early knockout.

For example, consider the Orioles’ declining offense, as reflected in their decline in runs per game over the past four months:

June: 5.62
July: 4.60
August: 4.46
September: 3.77

Since the All-Star Game, Ryan O’Hearn has an OPS of .643, Jackson Holliday has a .608 and Adley Rutschman has a .604. Infielder Jorge Mateo is out for the rest of the season, but three other outfielders — All-Star infielder Jordan Westburg, first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and infielder Ramón Urías — are expected back, as are right-hander Grayson Rodríguez and left-handed relief pitcher Danny Coulombe.

If enough of those players return as true contributors, the Orioles may have a resurgence. A rotation of Corbin Burnes, Zach Eflin, and Rodríguez could be quite impressive, although Rodríguez would almost certainly have a limited workload.

Eflin has proven to be an excellent signing, posting a 2.22 ERA in seven starts. Another new addition, Seranthony Domínguez, has helped stabilize the ninth inning after Craig Kimbrel collapsed. But three of general manager Mike Elias’ other signings, designated hitter Eloy Jiménez, left-handed starter Trevor Rogers and left-handed relief pitcher Gregory Soto, appear to be becoming flop players.

Jiménez has a .604 OPS with the Orioles. Rogers plays in Triple A, while one of the two prospects the Orioles sent to the Miami Marlins, infielder Connor Norby, has a .271 batting average with six home runs and an .842 OPS for Miami. Soto, meanwhile, has a 6.59 ERA in 17 appearances for Baltimore.

There were few quality relievers available at the deadline, but the San Diego Padres were able to sign two of them, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott. But as shaky as the Orioles’ bullpen appears with the return of Jacob Webb, their offense may be their bigger problem.

The season is not lost. Strange things happen in October. But for more than two months, Baltimore has been heading in the wrong direction.

More Orioles: Jeff Zrebiec tells us about the blossoming friendship between the O’s and the Ravens in Baltimore.

Mood check: Can Suárez regain some of the Phillies’ trust?

On June 19, Ranger Suárez of the Phillies had a record of 10-1 with a 1.75 ERA and was part of a Phillies rotation that dominated the sport with a league-record 2.97 ERA. But since then, Suárez has a record of 2-6 with a 5.61 ERA. Before yesterday’s loss to the Brewers, the Phillies’ rotation didn’t fare much better as a group, coming in at 26-25 with a 4.46 ERA.

As expected, the team’s record reflected this struggle:

Opening day until June 19th: 49-25
20 June to 16 September: 41-35

That’s still a win; the Phillies still lead the division by eight games over the Mets with 12 games remaining. But if they hope to avoid another October disappointment, they could use a rebound from Suárez, says Matt Gelb.

The same could be said of Aaron Nola, who has allowed ten earned runs in nine innings in his last two starts.

The Phillies continue to get stellar performances from Zack Wheeler (15-6, 2.60 ERA), and after a hiccup with two poor starts out of three in late July/early August, Christopher Sánchez has otherwise been solid.

A strong Suarez and/or Nola would be a dangerous opponent in October. If neither of them is in top form, the team looks a bit vulnerable.

Comeback: Darvish throttles Astros

After missing more than three months due to a personal family matter, Yu Darvish has returned to breathe new life into an already strong Padres team. After a rebuilding start against the Tigers on Sept. 4, Darvish pitched five innings and scored two runs against the Mariners last week.

If these two were the proverbial “soft start” for the comeback, then last night’s start against the Astros was like the big start on the red carpet. Darvish managed six shutout innings against the AL West-leading AstrosAnd although he only managed three strikeouts (and two walks), he allowed just three hits en route to a 3-1 victory.

Darvish, as you may recall, has a history with the Astros. In his first start in 2013, he brought a perfect game to the brink before Marwin González broke it up with a seeing-eye single with two outs in the ninth inning. Darvish was also a member of the 2017 Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 21.60 ERA in the World Series against the Astros in the year of the sign-stealing scandal.

Last night’s performance won’t make up for either, but it was encouraging for Padres fans who have been without Darvish for most of the summer. Given the seasons that Dylan Cease (13-11, 3.58 ERA) and Michael King (12-9, 3.06) have had, this looks like a strong October trio.

Luis Arraez: No-K series 👀

After 141 at-bats – the most since Juan Pierre’s 147 in 2004 – Arraez hit a Spencer Arrighetti curveball with two strikes missing in the second inning last night.

The series is dead, long live the series (currently: two hit appearances).

Handshakes and high fives

A positive sign for the Mets: Francisco Lindor’s MRI showed “good news” and he hopes to return this year.

The MLBPA is suing DraftKings, FanDuel and others for allegedly using player images without authorization.

In this week’s Power Rankings, we have a new No. 1 and are giving out some year-end awards.

Kristian Campbell from Boston is Keith Law’s young talent of the year.

After Mike Trout recently suffered a torn meniscus, he says he is ready to leave the midfield.

Holy crap, the White Sox beat the Angels and have now won three games in a row. It’s their first winning streak since June 27-29 against the Braves and Rockies.

You probably don’t need to read about the Giants’ miserable week, but it’s worth watching Heliot Ramos become the first right-hander to pitch at Oracle Park.

AL Wildcard (additional) check-in: We’ve already covered the Orioles, Royals, Twins and Tigers; the Mariners had a day off, so they won half a game – they’re two games out of a playoff spot.

NL Wildcard Check-in: The Mets beat the Nats and the Braves were beaten by the Dodgers. New York is one game ahead of Atlanta for the final wild-card spot.

Most clicked in yesterday’s newsletter: Jayson Stark’s Weird & Wild recap for August.

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(Top photo: Denny Medley / Imagn Images)