This system has pushed a front into the Plains that currently stretches from the central Dakotas to eastern New Mexico. As the system moves northeast over the next 48 hours, it will be difficult to push the front eastward. Instead, it will largely stall. The northern end of the front will push into the upper Midwest, but the southern end will get stuck in the middle of the central and southern Plains.

The front will bring scattered showers, but most should not be heavy. Models indicate rainfall amounts of less than 1/2 inch, although a few thunderstorms could increase those amounts in the Midwest through September 20.

After that, things get a little more interesting. There’s a low pressure system in the upper atmosphere digging into the West Coast. And instead of moving north into Canada like its predecessor, it may move directly east across the U.S. this weekend and next week. It’s moving into the Plains, where it’s forming a low pressure center on the stalled front that’s consolidating into a system that should bring more precipitation to the Plains over the weekend and then to the Midwest early next week.

The models are not yet clear on how much rain they will produce and where exactly the heaviest rainfall will occur. Looking at an ensemble of models can help us pinpoint the most likely areas to see heavy rain. According to the European model ensembles (EPS), the most likely areas are in Nebraska and Iowa, with an extension into northern Kansas and Missouri. The amounts from last night’s model run predicted 2 to 3 inches of rain for that area. In contrast, the American GFS ensembles (GEFS) show less intense rainfall overall. They still have an area of ​​2 to 3 inches, but it’s smaller in far eastern Nebraska and northwest Iowa. But the GEFS distributes the more moderate 1 to 2 inches of rainfall farther north through Minnesota and Wisconsin than the EPS. Regardless, it looks like some areas in the western and central Corn Belt can expect heavy rainfall due to the storm system, which could cause some problems.

Harvest has begun and the heavy rain could cause significant delays and potential quality losses. If accompanied by severe storms, which is quite possible, it could also cause storm damage. At the same time, corn and soybean crops in the north, particularly in the Dakotas, Minnesota and western Wisconsin, are significantly behind in development and could use some additional rain. All winter wheat areas in the Plains and Midwest could use some moisture as planting continues to ramp up. Although these areas are receiving less heavy rain, any rainfall is important for root system development.

For more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, visit https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at [email protected]

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.