NFL Week 3 Tips and Predictions: Why Texans and Packers are a Smart Choice
Lorenzo Reyes is well prepared for Week 3 in the NFL and provides us with the smartest tips of the weekend.
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The New York Jets accomplished something they hadn’t done in nine years on Thursday Night Football: They beat the New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium.
The Jets defeated their division rival 24-3, and it was as one-sided as the scoreboard suggests. Aaron Rodgers delivered by far his best performance for the Jets, completing 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and two touchdowns and leading New York consistently down the field.
New York’s running game was also strong against New England, but that didn’t stop NFL fans – and fantasy football fans – from noticing an interesting trend.
Rookie Braelon Allen was heavily involved in the Jets’ running game, and not just after the game turned into a loss. He regularly filled in for Breece Hall throughout the game and actually outgained his highly touted opponent by a yard.
Here’s everything you need to know about the Jets’ carry breakdown and whether it’s a one-week aberration or a sign of things to come.
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Breece Hall Stats vs. Braelon Allen Stats
Breece Hall stats against Patriots
- Carries: 16
- Rushing Yards: 54
- Rushing TDs: 1
- Receptions: 4
- Reception courtyards: 29
Braelon Allen Stats vs Patriots
- Carries: 11
- Rushing Yards: 55
- Rushing TDs: 0
- Receptions: 3
- Reception courtyards: 13
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Both Hall and Allen played heavily in the Jets’ Week 3 win over the Patriots, but Hall was still the clear leader in the Jets’ backfield. He played 52 of the Jets’ 73 offensive snaps in the blowout victory, compared to Allen’s 23. Isaiah Davis was the only other running back to play, playing three snaps in the fourth quarter of the 21-point victory.
While Hall’s snap disparity is large, it’s worth noting that Hall only had 20-14 more touches than Allen during the game. That means Allen touched the ball on 60.9% of his snaps, an impressively high number. For comparison, Hall’s usage rate was 38.5%.
Allen was also more efficient on his runs than Hall against the Patriots. Allen averaged 5 yards per carry, while Hall averaged a below-average 3.4 yards per carry. Allen’s averages weren’t helped by outliers either, as his longest run was just 11 yards.
All in all, Allen ran with a lot of power throughout the night and made some impressive runs against a solid Patriots defense. It was a nice follow-up to his two-touchdown performance in Week 2 and should give the Jets coaching staff confidence that he’s ready for a bigger role despite his status as the NFL’s youngest player.
Jets RBs Fantasy Outlook: What to make of Breece Hall vs. Braelon Allen?
Should fantasy owners have similar confidence in Allen? And is it time for Hall’s fantasy football managers to panic?
Probably not.
Allen’s snap percentage changed little from Week 2 to Week 3. He played 35% of the snaps against the Titans, but he only played 31.5% of the snaps in Week 3. That percentage may have dropped a bit due to the blowout, but it’s also unlikely to improve much in a more competitive game – unless Hall gets injured.
Additionally, it’s unrealistic to expect Allen to get the ball on 60.9% of his snaps every week. The Jets obviously had a plan to get Allen to touch the ball in Week 3, and it helped that they had a lead and were able to run frequently throughout the game.
Perhaps the Jets wanted to give both Allen and Hall plenty of touches due to the short week. Either way, that kind of game volume of 14 touches can’t be taken for granted by Allen managers, especially in games where the Jets trail, as Hall continues to be the preferred pass catcher.
Therefore, Allen looks more like a high-end fantasy handcuff. If Hall goes down with injury, Allen could emerge as a legitimate, high-level starting running back. Until then, he retains his flex potential as a touchdown-dependent option.
