Toropets is burning.
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In the early hours of Tuesday, a large swarm of Ukrainian drones flew north from Ukraine to Toropets, a city in western Russia that is home to the 107th Arsenal, a sprawling ammunition depot for Russian forces fighting 300 miles south in Ukraine.
The explosion at the arsenal was so powerful that it registered as a minor earthquake, attracted the attention of NASA’s fire-detection satellites, and forced local authorities to order the evacuation of residents. much Russian ammunition went up in flames.
Which Ammunition is unclear. According to the Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight, the arsenal contained 122-millimeter rockets, 82-millimeter mortar shells and 7.62-millimeter ammunition for rifles and machine guns.
But it is also possible that the arsenal contained stocks of much more powerful and rarer weapons. Official sources told RBC-Ukraine that these stocks included S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, as well as Iskander and KN-23 ballistic missiles – the latter of North Korean production. The Russians use the S-300, Iskander and KN-23 to bomb Ukrainian cities and electrical infrastructure from hundreds of kilometers away.
That so many of Russia’s best weapons were concentrated in a single location explains why Ukraine deployed such a large force for the attack. RBC-Ukraine claimed that more than 100 drones were involved – possibly making the attack on Toropets the largest Ukrainian attack on a target inside Russia since Russia expanded its war to Ukraine 30 months ago.
“Without exaggeration, this is a very significant achievement,” Frontelligence Insight said. “We will probably lose thousands of tons of explosives, grenades and rockets.”
The most optimistic scenario for Russia is that there were only a few ballistic missiles at Toropets – and that any lost missiles can be replaced at some point, perhaps with the first missile shipment from Iran. The worst-case scenario for Russia is that it has just lost a significant portion of its best munitions for attacks deep inside Ukraine.
For Ukraine, the attack on Toropets could be a turning point. For many months, Kiev officials have been asking their European and American counterparts for permission to use donated long-range munitions – British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and French SCALP-EG missiles, as well as missiles from the American Army Tactical Missile System – against targets deep inside Russia, including ammunition depots.
But the Europeans and Americans consistently refused to grant their permission, even though the number of civilian deaths caused by Russian attacks continued to rise.
Visibly frustrated, Ukrainians have doubled production of locally developed weapons – drones and missiles – that they can fire at targets in Russia without asking anyone for permission.
By blowing up the Toropets arsenal, these homemade weapons may have delivered their heaviest blow yet – and potentially saved dozens of Ukrainian lives by preventing future Russian attacks. “A very important result has been achieved,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said just hours after the Toropets explosion.
