Welcome to The wrong reading. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to understand how an upcoming matchup might unfold in terms of each offensive player’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be at passing? How much will they be able to run with the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by examining the advanced metrics, we can better understand dynamics that may not show up in the match report every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signals that might indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include data from the beginning of 2024 and the last weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes are not fully reflected in these numbers – in cases where this is important, I will point this out. But we can still get a good idea of what to expect from each of these teams. I will highlight the most important features of the matchup below each graphic.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
After both Breece Hall And Braelon Allen If the Jets have impressive fantasy performances, they could look to get one or both players back in the game early. The Patriots pose a difficult challenge for opposing rushing attacks. Only one team allows fewer yards per rushing play, and no team allows fewer explosive plays. While New England doesn’t fill the box often, they are capable of limiting both yards before and yards after contact.
Still, Hall and Allen could find some room at receiver. Both scored touchdowns in Week 2 and New England is beatable in the passing game. The Patriots don’t generate pressure and don’t play tight coverage. Whether it’s because of the offensive line or because he doesn’t like to take a hit after his Achilles injury, Aaron Rodgers gets the ball out faster than in any other season of his career.
This means two things: First, the Patriots pass rush won’t have much time to get to him. But in the same vein, it also means the Jets receivers won’t have as much time to get open on their routes. Therefore, it becomes much more likely that Rodgers’ throws will be directed to targets closer to the line of scrimmage: Hall and Allen.
The shorter than normal time to throw explains why no Jets player who has seen more than one target has an aDOT higher than Allen Lazard’s 10.7. (Michael Williams has seen only one target on his 20 routes so far, and that was 16 yards down the field.) Rodgers’ average depth of throw this season is just 6 yards down the field. For comparison, it has never fallen below 7.1 in Green Bay in any season. Garret Wilson operates slightly closer to the line of scrimmage than Lazard or Williams, but his aDOT is more than a yard lower than in 2023, and he’s averaging just 8.5 targets per game through the first two weeks, also below his 2023 figure of 9.9.
| player | GM | RoutesRunning | Goals | Routes/GM | Goals/GM | Routes/Destination | aDOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garret Wilson | 2 | 60 | 17 | 30 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 9.1 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 50 | 13 | 25 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 10.7 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 40 | 14 | 20 | 7 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 17 | 5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 3.4 | -0.6 |
While we shouldn’t bet that Wilson and Rodgers can’t figure out their connection, this could end up being an offense that gives the RBs more targets than we expect.
On the other hand, New England will have trouble passing the ball against the Jets, and not just because New York is the best defense in terms of EPA allowed per pass. It’s also because the Patriots have one of the worst passing offenses.
The Jets’ pass rush ranks fourth in pressure rate, and the Patriots’ offensive line ranks 30th in pressure rate allowed. Additionally, no team’s receivers create less spacing than New England’s. Only two teams play tighter coverage than New York’s secondary. That’s not a recipe for a strong Patriots passing game.
The problem for Patriots fans and fantasy managers who own pieces of this offense is that they can also struggle to move the ball on the ground. However, if there’s a way for New England to gain yards and first downs, it’s through the running game. Despite ranking poorly in many advanced running metrics, the Patriots are No. 5 in yards after contact, and no team allows more rushing yards after contact than the Jets, who are also prone to explosive running plays.
Rhamondre Stevenson will be far from an easy opponent, but they could make some long runs. The Jets occupy the box more than most teams, which likely allows them to limit yards before contact. But once the RBs get past that initial contact, they have been able to gain yards. Given the likely emphasis on RB play in this game, it’s no surprise to see an over/under of just 38.5.
