I generally stay away from the big September favorites because when they get a big lead, some coaches will slow down, shorten their playbook, and in some cases even require a running clock.
Indiana’s head coach is not one of those coaches.
Charlotte vs. Indiana (12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Big Ten Network)
Curt Cignetti sends a message to the Big Ten: Take Indiana seriously, or something will happen.
Despite leading 42-3 against the weaker team Western Illinois, Cignetti was undeterred.
He scored 35 points in the second half, securing a triumphant 77-3 win.
And when his Hoosiers moved up a weight class, they continued their battle against UCLA, giving the Bruins a rude welcome to the Big Ten with a 42-13 loss.
Now Charlotte is coming to Bloomington and, to put it mildly, the 49ers are losing oil.
Their offense was barely functional with Max Brown at quarterback, but the former Florida Gator was ruled out for this game.
This is bad news for Charlotte’s offense, which ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing and quarterback protection.
Last week, Charlotte needed a rapid fourth-quarter comeback to beat FCS Gardner-Webb by a single point.
The 49ers did this with big plays, their only strength on offense.
The problem on Saturday is that Indiana is one of the best teams in the country at limiting chunk plays of 20 yards or more.
The Hoosiers have allowed just five plays of 20-plus yards this season and rank third in the country in total defense.
If Indiana’s defense puts pressure on third-string quarterback Trexler Ivey, Indiana will need to score 40+ points to comfortably reach that number.
I have unwavering faith in Kurtis “The Maple Missile” Rourke to pull this off.
Canadian imports are thriving in Cignetti’s system.
In Rourke’s last two games, he has completed 40 of 50 passes for 575 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions.
With a clean pocket, Rourke will tear this defense apart.
The 49ers rank 111th in pass rush (PFF) and blitz on 38 percent of their defensive snaps to make up for their lackluster line.
That’s where Indiana will hurt the 49ers the most.
If these blitzes fail to finish, they will pay the price at the hands of Indiana’s passing attack, which has the highest success rate in the country.
Cignetti has a 17-10 record against the spread as an FBS head coach and seems motivated to get the win. I’m not getting on the IU bandwagon, I’d bet the Hoosiers as much as -31.
Recommendation: Indiana-28.5.
Rice in the Army (12:00 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Normally, the public avoids scoring points at a Service Academy, but after opening at two, that number has been bumped up to 6.5.
There are two reasons for this.
First, the Army has been impressive this season, winning six games in a row through Saturday.
The Cadets rank third in running game success rate and put pressure on teams with 390 yards per game (1st place).
Betting on college football?
In addition, some situational aspects must be taken into account:
The first is that Rice hasn’t played a triple-option offense in five years.
Army offensive coordinator Cody Worley has added pistol and shotgun variants to the traditional triple option, giving opponents even more work to do.
Rice already has trouble stopping the run, ranking 115th in defensive stuff rate and 127th in rush EPA.
And the second situational aspect is that the Army is just coming off a season without games.
Since Jeff Monken took over as head football player at West Point, he has been a safe bet when his team has a rest advantage.
Monken is 25-16 ATS in such scenarios.
Recommendation: Army -7.
Why you can bet on the New York Post
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post with a focus on college sports. His betting tips often revolve around situational factors, including travel, rest periods and elevation.
