Key findings

• All three promoted teams have struggled so far this season and all three are at the bottom of the expected points table.
• Newcastle’s results flatter the team given their performance, while Tottenham have an expected total score of 5.98.
• Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Brighton and Aston Villa are among the strongest teams in the league.

The Premier League is now in full swing and the table for the new season is already taking shape. Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City are all title contenders again, while Everton are stuck at the bottom of the table.

The Toffees have had a dismal start to the new season, while all three promoted teams have also disappointed. Forest surprised with their encouraging start, Fabian Hurzeler’s tenure at Brighton got off to a good start and Newcastle managed to pick up points despite some underwhelming performances.

But how did the teams actually perform compared to their total scores? Well, thanks Optawe can see how many points each team could have scored based on the quality and quantity of chances they created and conceded. The metric, known as ‘expected points’, determines the number of points a team should have scored in a game based on the expected goals for and against them within a game, with the league’s ‘expected points’ table being a compilation of all teams’ total points from each game played.

The data allows us to see which teams have underperformed and overperformed so far this season based on the overall quality of their performances. The sample size is indeed small, and factors such as a team’s difficult schedule and game-changing effects such as sendings off can skew the numbers. Nevertheless, the results certainly make for interesting reading to start with.

20. – 16.

Ipswich at the bottom of the table

The transition into the new season has not been a smooth one for any of the promoted teams, with all three teams in the lower reaches of both the expected points table and the actual table. Ipswich are in 20th place and Kieran McKenna’s team have struggled to adapt to the quality of the top flight so far. The Tractor Boys’ numbers are certainly clouded by the fact that they have already played Manchester City and Liverpool, but their performances will need to improve if they are to avoid relegation.

Everton’s awful start is as bad as it looks. The expected points total shows that their poor form is not the result of an unfortunate closing phase and that Sean Dyche does indeed have cause for concern. However, the data suggests that the Merseysiders are a little unlucky not to have picked up at least a couple of points, with their performances in that regard worthy of at least a small edge.

Southampton are also unlucky not to have picked up a point yet and are currently two places behind where one might expect based on performance. Leicester’s results are somewhat flattering to the team in terms of their position in the league table, although Steve Cooper’s side could have crossed the three-point mark.

West Ham, perhaps surprisingly, complete this bottom end of the expected points table, with Julen Lopetegui’s side yet to hit their stride relative to their performances. The Spanish boss’s side have already played against the likes of City and Villa, although their line-up of new signings do not seem to have quite found their feet yet.

15. – 11.

Newcastle and Spurs do not deliver a convincing performance

The next section looks at two teams that should be in the upper reaches of the league table but have not performed as well as teams of this calibre. Newcastle, 13th in the expected points table, is one of the clubs currently performing well above their numbers, suggesting that Eddie Howe’s side could be slipping in performance.

On the other hand, Tottenham’s results are in line with their performances, which have certainly not been good enough. Having also played against two of the weakest teams in the league, Everton and Leicester, alarm bells may be ringing for Ange Postecoglou.

Otherwise, Wolves have been unlucky so far, picking up just one point. The underlying numbers suggest that Gary O’Neil’s team should have picked up at least five points and should be just above the relegation zone. Crystal Palace’s disappointing start to the new season also seems a little unfortunate, while Brentford’s positive start is no illusion and is even more impressive when you take into account their difficult games.

10. – 6.

Arsenal is in 10th place

The headline in this group is that title contenders Arsenal have not really got going so far. The Gunners have picked up ten points but are closer to the six expected, although this may be partly down to their midfield being weak on their trip to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and halfway through the game against Brighton with ten men. A supercomputer predicted Mikel Arteta would finish second in the table but he could perform even better on the pitch.

Chelsea have earned 8th place and are 9th in the xP table. Enzo Maresca’s side have regained form after losing to City on matchday one. Marco Silva will be encouraged by his team’s performance, although results have been mixed. Fulham’s underlying data suggests they could be a point or so better off, with strong home performances against Leicester and West Ham perhaps earning them six points rather than just four.

Meanwhile, two teams have exceeded expectations in terms of their performance so far: Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth. The former’s solid defensive performance is reflected in the underlying data, while the Cherries’ goal drought leaves them six places lower than they should be at this point in the season.

5. – 1.

United moves into the top five

Although all the fuss around Old Trafford would suggest that Manchester United have shown no signs of improvement under Erik ten Hag this season, the Red Devils sit fifth in the expected points table. Comfortable wins over Fulham and Southampton may mask some of the cracks, as well as the impact of being 3-0 down against Liverpool for large stretches of the game, but the underlying signs are encouraging for the north-western club.

Aside from Arsenal’s visit to Villa Park, Unai Emery’s men have had largely good games to start the season, although the Villans show no signs of a drop in performance this time around, sitting in the top four in underlying numbers. Brighton are on a similar upward trajectory to their Birmingham counterparts, although Hurzeler’s influence should have been even greater, with the Seagulls trailing only City and Liverpool in expected points.

City’s start has been as good as the numbers suggest, despite Rodri not playing in any of their first four games. Liverpool’s defeat to Forest should not overshadow what has been a very encouraging start to the Arne Slot era. The Reds are just behind City on expected points, although tougher tests lie ahead.

All statistics about Opta – as of 19.09.2024