When Vice President Kamala Harris took over the Democratic nomination in late July, something happened in North Carolina.

Thousands of volunteers flocked. Of the more than 23,500 people who signed up, 94% had never done so before, according to the campaign. In the week after President Joe Biden resigned, voter registrations jumped among women overall, and were even more pronounced among women of color, according to a tracking firm.

And all this happened before the worst scandal yet rocked Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who called himself a “black Nazi,” according to CNN reporting.

Robinson has been a regular in North Carolina’s women-targeted commercials, calling for a ban on all abortions and declaring that a mother’s life is not at stake.

“It’s about killing a child because you weren’t responsible enough to keep your skirt down,” Robinson says in a video clip.

The turmoil surrounding Robinson and signs of increased energy surrounding Harris are keeping Democratic optimism high in the Tarheel State, particularly among women, even though the state has not been tied to Democrats since Barack Obama’s victory in 2008.

Part of Harris’ campaign strategy in North Carolina, according to a campaign official, is to increase turnout not only among black voters but also among women in the suburbs and surrounding areas. They are also trying to gain a foothold in the state’s rural areas. They are also targeting Republicans they believe have been turned off by Trump – or Robinson. That includes counties where Nikki Haley, the former governor of neighboring South Carolina, outperformed in the Republican primary.

At a Sept. 12 rally in Greensboro, some of Harris’ biggest cheers centered on reproductive rights, an issue that is stirring voters across the country.

“Think about this: Because of Trump’s abortion bans, women are being denied care when they miscarry,” Harris said. She then referred to her debate with Trump. “And when asked on Tuesday night, Donald Trump refused to say he would oppose a national abortion ban. Do you remember him refusing to answer that question?”

Tom Bonier, whose firm TargetSmart tracks voter registration trends, said North Carolina saw a spike in new female voters the week of July 21 — shortly after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris — compared to the same week in 2020. The week after Harris became the presumptive nominee, there was a 61.5% increase in voter registration among North Carolina women. And that same week, there was a 145% increase over 2022 — and a 557% increase in voter registration among Black women under 30.

For Bonier, all of this suggests that Democratic voter turnout is higher in North Carolina.

“This is huge. Not only are we talking about a whole bunch of new voters and new registrants who are likely to be very active in the polls, but it also suggests a greater enthusiasm in that group in general,” he said. “It means that women in general, particularly younger women, including women of color, are likely to be much more likely to vote than they otherwise would. That’s certainly all we need to put North Carolina in the mix.”

In 2020, then-President Donald Trump won by just 1.3%. Since then, the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade, and the state has experienced a population surge around its metropolitan strongholds of Raleigh and Charlotte.

“North Carolinians – from the suburbs to the cities to our rural communities – reject Donald Trump and Mark Robinson’s extreme Project 2025 agenda to ban abortion and raise costs for families,” said Dory MacMillan, spokeswoman for the Harris campaign in North Carolina, in a statement. “Meanwhile, our campaign is gaining momentum as we continue to show up in communities across the state to share Vice President Harris’ vision for a new way forward where our rights are protected and every North Carolinian has the opportunity to not just get by, but get ahead.”

Republicans have their doubts. Especially because rural North Carolina is hardcore Trump country. Trump’s campaign team has repeatedly expressed its confidence in the state. Nevertheless, it has invested money in ads in the state to show that it recognizes a threat. On Saturday, Trump will attend a rally in Wilmington. Robinson is not expected to attend.

Regarding the Democrats’ success with suburban women, a Trump ally said: “Good luck with that.”

And a former official of the Republican Party in North Carolina expressed doubts that Robinson’s issues would ultimately determine the success or failure of the Republicans. The Democrats “still have a chance” in North Carolina because of high population growth in the urban centers and especially in the Republican-dominated suburbs, said the former official.

“Now we have a political interlude,” they added. “This will be a test of whether placement on the lower ballots can harm those at the top.”

Dallas Woodhouse, executive director of the conservative group American Majority in North Carolina, called the revelations about Robinson “disturbing” and “disappointing.”

“Nobody wants to see this kind of thing about their political party five or six weeks before Election Day,” Woodhouse said. “A sober reflection this morning shows that North Carolina’s fundamentals continue to favor Trump, not by much, but a little.”

But Thomas Mills, a longtime state consultant and founder and editor of PoliticsNC.com, said Robinson’s controversies could depress overall Republican turnout, especially since Democrats say Trump has repeatedly vouched for Robinson’s character. A day after CNN broke the story, Harris had already launched a television ad featuring the two together. Trump had called Robinson “Martin Luther King on steroids.”

“It creates prejudice and demoralizes Republicans,” Mills said, noting that there is a part of the Republican Party that is already dissatisfied with Trump and would be even more repelled after the allegations against Robinson. “If those people decide not to vote or actually vote for the Democrat, that will be a big help in a state like North Carolina, where 75,000 out of 5.5 million votes make the difference.”

Morgan Jackson, a longtime Democratic consultant and longtime aide to gubernatorial candidate and current Attorney General Josh Stein, emphasized how evenly North Carolina is divided between the state’s very rural areas and its more urban and suburban population centers.

“It’s a 50-50 state. We’ve polled extensively on this race. It’s as close as it gets,” Jackson said of the presidential race. “The truth is there are very few … purple counties in North Carolina. Most of them are deep blue and getting bluer or deep red and getting redder.”

“In North Carolina, you win nationally,” he said, “if you win at the margins.”