In the last 24 hours, numerous new polls have been released nationally and in swing states – particularly from the swing state of Pennsylvania – that paint three consistent storylines following last week’s presidential debate.
First, Democrats are better positioned in the polls today than they were this year, thanks to the change at the top of the party’s presidential candidate list.
Second, the situation in the contested states looks more favorable for the Democrats than before. This is especially true for the important swing states on the Great Lakes, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
And thirdly, the presidential election campaign remains exciting, with most of the results of the national and state polls well within the margin of error. Whatever movements there have been, we are far from one party or the other being able to win this election campaign by a clear margin.
Stronger position of the Democrats
Let us first look at the latest national polls.
According to a Fox News poll released Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by two percentage points among registered voters, 50% to 48%; the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
This was a slight improvement for Harris over last month’s Fox News poll, which had Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%.
And while this movement is also within the margin of error, according to the Fox poll, Trump was narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden for most of the year when he was at the top of the ballot box – with one exception (June 2024 before the Biden-Trump debate).
By comparison, a nationwide poll by the New York Times and Siena College shows a neck-and-neck race of 47% to 47% among likely voters.
Still, that’s slightly better for Harris than what the network’s previous poll showed before the September debate — Trump 48%, Harris 47%, a change well within the margin of error. And it’s significantly better than the poll numbers for Biden when he was still in the race (in 2024, he trailed Trump by between 1 and 6 points).
A cheaper battlefield map for Harris
In addition, all state-level polls show Harris doing better in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than Biden did last year and certainly after his debate against Trump in June.
In Michigan, a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters (as well as all the other state polls mentioned here) found 50% would vote for Harris and 45% would vote for Trump, while another 4% would choose someone else or are undecided. A Marist poll found 52% would vote for Harris and 47% would vote for Trump, while another 2% would choose another option or are undecided.
In Pennsylvania, recent polls have ranged from a neck-and-neck race to Harris with a narrow lead within the margin of error. The Quinnipiac University poll had 51% for Harris and 45% for Trump, with 5% choosing someone else or undecided. The latest New York Times/Siena College poll: 50% for Harris, 46% for Trump, 4% don’t know/refused to answer.
But both Marist and The Washington Post showed a neck-and-neck race in Pennsylvania: In the first poll, it was 49 percent, in the second 48 percent, while the remaining voters were still undecided or chose other candidates.
And in Wisconsin, new polls based on margin of error showed Harris slightly better than Trump. The AARP poll puts Harris at 49%, Trump at 48%. Harris also led by one percentage point in Quinnipiac and Marist, 49% to 48% in Quinnipiac and 50% to 49% in Marist.
Still a close competition
Despite the Democrats’ stronger position, polls indicate a neck-and-neck race.
This is especially true for the polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A Trump victory in just one of these states could give him a lead in the race for 270 electoral votes.
With poll results largely within the margin of error, the outcome of the 2024 race is far from clear.
Because a shift of just two or three percentage points would push the race back to where it was when Biden was still in the race.
