The Diamondbacks have found their rhythm recently and can now move back into the playoffs. The D-backs look to win the four-game series in Milwaukee on Saturday after winning the first two games in their final road series of the 2024 season. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. Arizona time.

After losing 8 of their first 15 games in September, the team is now back on track. Arizona has won its last three games and now holds a record of 86-68. The team’s playoff chances have improved significantly with their good play of late.

Arizona now occupies the second NL wild card spot, sandwiched between the Padres and the Mets, who are one game behind the Diamondbacks in the battle for the final playoff spot.

The Mets are two games ahead of the Braves, who were eliminated from the playoffs before Saturday’s matchup. The Mets and Braves play a crucial series against each other next week that could help settle the playoff situation in the National League.

Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Zac Gallen were good pitchers and contributed to Arizona’s three-game winning streak, and Kelly now hopes to continue the streak of solid performances from his rotation as the team heads into the home stretch.

Kelly is scheduled to make his second-to-last start of the 2024 season and will look to finish the season strong after missing much of it due to injury. Less than a month into the season, Kelly was placed on the injured list by the Diamondbacks with a right shoulder injury. He missed nearly four months and did not return until the season entered its second half.

With a 4-0 record this season, Merrill Kelly has yet to lose a game in 2024 and he will look to continue that streak on Saturday afternoon.

Kelly got back into the swing of things pretty quickly. In his first start on August 11 against the top-ranked Phillies, Kelly got off to a good start and Arizona emerged victorious.

However, the right-hander put in a series of poor performances over the rest of August, allowing at least seven hits and four earned runs in each of three games. Many of those runs came from home runs, as Kelly allowed six long balls in 78 batters faced (7.7% of the time).

Kelly has recovered from his slump in September. In two of his three starts since then, Kelly has gone at least six innings and allowed two or fewer runs. The other start, on Sept. 11 against the Rangers, was less promising. Kelly left the game after throwing just 65 pitches due to cramping in his right thigh.

The reason for this concern is rather mild, however, as Kelly has struggled with the same problem several times since last season at Chase Field.

This month, Kelly has improved his home ball vulnerability. In three games, Kelly has allowed just two home runs on 67 batters hit, and he did so just 3% of the time, more than doubling his rate from the previous month.

Kelly’s improvement in limiting hard contact is also reflected in the decline in opponents’ barrel rate. In September, hitters’ barrel rate against Kelly was 16.9%, the worst in baseball among over 100 qualified starters, according to Fangraphs’ leaderboard. Since then, Kelly’s barrel rate has dropped significantly to 6.4%, nearly a third of his rate from the previous month.

Home runs will still be an issue. Over the last 30 days, the Brewers have hit the third-most home runs in baseball (41), behind the Dodgers and the D-backs, according to Fangraphs. Jackson Chourio has generated most of the excitement on the Brewers’ offense.

After a slow start to his rookie season, the former coveted young player has led the Brewers’ offense to the top of the division and has achieved a batting score of 156 wRC+ since the All-Star break, the best on the team.

On Arizona’s side, Eugenio Suarez has the most batting appearances against Civale with 15, although he still doesn’t quite have the advantage with six strikeouts and just one single in the small sample size.

Civale, who the Brewers acquired from the Rays at the trade deadline, has a versatile arsenal and throws five types of pitches at least 10% of the time. His sinker has been his most important pitch this season, but he’s been throwing it less recently as his xWOBA is a poor .342 this season.

The cutter has been his preferred pitch of late, and it has been effective. Since July, the pitch has posted a 29.3% whiff rate and a .239 xwOBA in 54 at-bats.

Of all the players in Arizona’s lineup, Joc Pederson has performed the best against Cutter this season, in terms of his team-best run value (+9) and wOBA of .610. The team as a whole has performed quite well against Cutter this season, posting a league-leading batter run value of +26. The gap between them and second place is equal in second through seventh place, according to the Baseball Savant search tool.