This story has been updatedto add new information.
Similar to the Democratic presidential candidates in 2016 and 2020, Vice President Kamala Harris was able to influence the results in her favor in the betting markets and polls following last week’s debate with former President Donald Trump.
The change in offshore betting odds for the 2024 presidential race is smaller than for Trump’s other inaugural debates. Still, bettors now say Harris is more likely to win despite the few percentage points he lost, according to Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. Betting on the presidential election is not legal in the US.
Trump and Harris’ odds of winning were 49% at the end of the debate. After the odds shifted slightly in Trump’s favor the next morning, Polymarket bettors gave Harris a better chance of winning. Her odds were 51% to 48% for Trump as of 9:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday.
How the election chances changed after the presidential debates
The probability of Harris winning has fluctuated by as much as eight percentage points in the past week, according to Polymarket. In the days following a first debate, that’s a smaller fluctuation than in Trump’s three previous first encounters.
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No second Trump-Harris debate. No big deal
A rematch between Trump and Harris on stage is unlikely after Trump said in a Truth Social post last week that “there will be no third debate!” A vice presidential debate is scheduled for October 1. Still, bettors on Polymarket give a second Harris-Trump debate at least a 30% chance.
What you should know about the vice presidential debate between Walz and Vance
CBS News will host a vice presidential debate between Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance on October 1.
A second debate, however, would likely have little value for either candidate. First debates have had the biggest impact on polls and betting odds over the past four election cycles, according to Real Clear Politics and data provided to USA TODAY by Betfair, the U.K.’s largest peer-to-peer betting platform.
Poll averages for 2024 give Harris a slight lead in recent weeks
Like the betting odds, polling averages compiled by Real Clear Politics rose about one percentage point in Harris’ favor after the September 10 debate. Trump’s poll numbers remained largely unchanged.
Betting odds did not predict Trump’s victory in 2016
While the numbers have turned back in Harris’ favor, Trump is still a few percentage points behind, a gap much smaller than he had in the betting markets in his previous two presidential elections, according to Betfair.
In fact, according to Betfair odds, Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning on Election Day 2016 were 81%. According to nonprofit news organization The Conversation, the betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866. The only other time bettors failed to predict the winner was in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman defeated Republican Thomas Dewey at odds of 8-1.
How Harris and Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have changed
Little change in Trump’s chances after foiled assassination attempt
It’s worth noting that the attempted assassination of Trump ahead of the Republican National Convention pushed Trump’s odds of winning to 71%, his highest ever recorded at Polymarket or Betfair. Trump’s odds of winning remained largely unchanged after the apparent assassination attempt last weekend while he was golfing in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Contributors: James Powel
