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North Carolina faces a difficult future


North Carolina faces a difficult future

We live in a society that is struggling with the concept of old age. People are living longer, working longer, and increasingly resisting the idea that they should step into the background and pass the torch to a new generation.

In some ways, that’s an ambitious goal. We all want to be alive and productive in our 70s and 80s. At the same time, it seems selfish and delusional to hold on to power when the results are no longer there.

Now 73, North Carolina coach Mack Brown has had an incredible life in college football. It began as a head coach in 1983, when Appalachian State named him head coach at age 32. It took him to Tulane, then North Carolina, then Texas, where he won a national championship and put together a decade-long winning streak that few have ever been able to match.

When his run at Texas failed, Brown eventually went into the broadcast booth, but he still wanted a chance on the sidelines. North Carolina and athletic director Bubba Cunningham gave him that chance in 2019, when Brown vowed that his goal was to win a national title at a place that meant so much to him in his life and career.

It seemed very romantic then. Today it seems ridiculous.

Brown won’t win another national title. Will he even last this season?

After North Carolina’s embarrassing 70-50 loss to James Madison on Saturday, Inside Carolina reported that Brown’s emotional speech in the locker room suggested he was leaving. But after calming down, Brown told ESPN he would return to work on Sunday.

This is not sustainable.

Here are the facts. In his second tenure at North Carolina, Brown’s record is 41-28. In his first four years, the Tar Heels have only been ranked No. 17 at the end of the season once: in the 2020 final poll. That’s especially disappointing because he had top-notch quarterbacks like Sam Howell and Drake Maye on his roster until this year. The loss to James Madison underscores the problems Brown has had with his defensive coordinators, from Jay Bateman to Gene Chizik to former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins.

Was it a disaster overall? No, not at North Carolina, which has always been one of college football’s biggest underachievers. But was Mack’s second tenure in Chapel Hill a success? It would be disingenuous to say yes.

At an age when all of his contemporaries have left the stage, does it make sense for Brown to move on? Not if the goal is for North Carolina to have a football program that competes for ACC and national titles.

It’s sad, uncomfortable and rude to talk about it so bluntly, but even a beloved Hall of Famer like Brown reaches a point where it no longer makes sense to lead a college football program trying to win at the highest level.

A loss as horrific as this to James Madison will only fuel that debate. And that’s why North Carolina ranks No. 1 on the Misery Index, a weekly measure of which fan bases are feeling the most fear.

Four more in misery

TCU: Since appearing in the College Football Playoff championship game — and yes, I said appearance and not game because the Horned Frogs didn’t play much football that night against Georgia — TCU has lost nine of its last 16 games. And the frustration of that predicament was on display Saturday, when Sonny Dykes lost his cool several times and was ejected early in the second half of a 66-42 loss to SMU.

When was the last time you saw a college football coach get ejected from a game for two unsportsmanlike offenses? Then again: When was the last time you saw a program near the top of the sport and then completely fall back to a level of mediocrity that seems far more permanent than the success it experienced two years ago? Let’s face facts. TCU’s 2022 season was a fluke. Perhaps one of the greatest flukes in college football history. And now TCU isn’t even the best program in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, let alone the state of Texas, let alone the Central Time Zone, let alone the Big 12, let alone the entire country.

Virginia Tech: In mid-October of last season, the Hokies were 2-4 and struggling. Second-year head coach Brent Pry was on his way to the firing line. Longtime athletic director Whit Babcock was facing criticism for the second disappointing signing of a football player in a row.

But then Virginia Tech turned things around, winning five of its last seven games to move to 7-6. Hokie Nation suddenly felt great. With more starters than anyone in the ACC, expectations were rising. Pry was the city’s star. The Hokies were back!

Of course, that was before any games were even played. And now that the season is a month old, we can definitely say the Hokies are not back. If anything, they are irrelevant again. They really suck.

Virginia Tech’s 26-23 home loss to Rutgers leaves them at 2-2 (they lost a season opener to Vanderbilt), and now we have to revisit last year’s winning streak. The Hokies have wins over Wake Forest, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia and Tulane, among others. Not exactly Murderers’ Row. Perhaps this year’s schedule will prove just as weak, but no one will be fooled. The Hokies have big problems.

Auburn: The reason you want Hugh Freeze to coach your program is because he wants to score points, which is why you overlook the NCAA violations at Ole Miss, the inappropriate phone calls that led to his firing, and the general sense of mendacity that has made him college football’s version of Jimmy Swaggart for the past decade.

In theory, that’s not a bad trade-off. If you believe the entire sport is a cesspool, then Freeze is worth the bad publicity – as long as he’s winning.

But in his two years at Auburn, Freeze’s cost-benefit analysis has hit a roadblock. His team isn’t winning. It’s not scoring points. It’s not entertaining for anyone, unless punting and an unusually high number of turnovers (14 in four games) are entertaining for you.

Auburn’s 24-14 loss to Arkansas, which dropped the Tigers to 2-2, should definitely keep Freeze on a tight leash. If you want to be an offensive guru, you have to score more than 14 points, which Auburn has done so far against the only power conference teams in California and Arkansas.

Freeze version 2.0 just doesn’t work in the SEC. And if you want to blame the quarterback position – neither Payton Thorne nor Hank Brown have looked like they’re the right fit – then you have to blame Freeze too. He’s had two years to improve that position and so far there’s no sign of a better future.

Oklahoma: Jackson Arnold was one of the top quarterback recruits in the country, and it was a major coup when Brent Venables got the Denton, Texas native to join the Sooners in January 2022. But recruiting rankings don’t mean guaranteed success at the college level, and the Sooners have major teething issues with Arnold.

While the story of Tennessee’s 25-15 victory in Norman focuses heavily on Vols coach Josh Heupel, who won a national title as Oklahoma’s quarterback in 2000 and was Bob Stoops’ offensive coordinator for four years before being fired, the real story here is about Arnold.

He completed just 7 of 16 passes for 54 yards, threw an interception and dropped a fumble in the first half when the Sooners were within striking distance of the end zone. He was subbed out for Michael Hawkins, who, while not outstanding, looked more steady and confident in the second half. Had Oklahoma had a decent quarterback for 60 minutes, it might have had a chance to beat the Vols. Instead, the Sooners appear to be a step or two below the level they need to be in the SEC. The quarterback situation will be a major point of contention for Oklahoma in the second half of the season as they evaluate what it will take to compete at this level.

Misery, but not miserable enough

Nebraska: Stop us if you’ve heard this before. The Huskers managed to lose a game they absolutely should have won. It’s not quite as devastating this time, because Nebraska is clearly on the right track under Matt Rhule and quarterback Dylan Raiola is an insanely good freshman who should eventually get the Huskers into the College Football Playoff. Still, Nebraska missed a 39-yard field goal with three minutes left and then lost to Illinois 31-24 in overtime. That drops the Huskers to 17-43 in games trailing by one point since the start of the 2015 season.

Vanderbilt: No other team in the country is as reliably bad in the decisive period as the Commodores. Year after year, coach after coach, recruiting class after recruiting class, Vanderbilt’s ability to lose winnable games is as consistent as the sunrise. The Commodores had their chances to pull off a big win at Missouri on Saturday, but kicker Brock Taylor missed a 50-yard throw for the lead with 3:06 left in regulation and a 31-yard throw that forced the game into the third overtime, and Vanderbilt lost to Missouri 30-27. And it’s not that Taylor is a bad kicker: He managed a 57-yard throw earlier in the game but just couldn’t make it under pressure. That’s exactly what’s happening at Vanderbilt, where head coach Clark Lea is now 2-23 in the SEC.

Northern Illinois: The Huskies had two weeks to bask in the glory of their Sept. 7 win over Notre Dame, and they took full advantage of the interview requests and social media kudos they received. But the party ended Saturday when they lost 23-20 to Buffalo at home in two overtimes. Somehow, Northern Illinois’ defense gave up just 184 yards, but lost when Upton Bellenfant — perhaps the best name in all of college football — kicked a 37-yard field goal for the Bulls in overtime.

State of Mississippi: The Bulldogs are headed for their worst season in nearly two decades. Under Sylvester Croom in 2006, Mississippi State finished 3-9 and fired him two years later. That led to a long streak of success under Dan Mullen, who raised expectations for one of the SEC’s most demanding programs. It goes without saying that Jeff Lebby will struggle to meet those expectations. Mississippi State is now 1-3 in Lebby’s first season following a 45-28 loss to Florida at home that came just a week after the 24-point loss to Toledo. In fairness to Lebby, most of Mississippi State’s players entered the transfer portal after last season when Zach Arnott was fired. But it’s now clear that this is going to be a really painful and long rebuild.

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