In the two games at the start of the 2024 season, Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin gave it his all.

After a Week 1 game in which he caught all eight passes aimed at him for 83 yards and a touchdown against the Commanders, Godwin put on quite the performance in Week 2. Against the Lions, he was the primary source of aerial offense, catching seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown – all in the first half.

Adding those numbers together, Godwin has been efficient and explosive through two games, with 15 catches on 16 attempts for 200 yards and two touchdowns. After being used primarily on the outside last year, his play has improved in offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s offense.

Games like this are an example of how different stakes lead to better results.

The fact that Chris Godwin is again achieving better results raises a question that the team must answer within six months: Is it worth paying the then 29-year-old Godwin a new contract worth $20 million a year?

Chris Godwin’s start into 2024 increases his price

Back in June, Josh Queipo of the Pewter Report analyzed what a contract extension for Chris Godwin could look like. Queipo had the following to say at the time.

After hitting the 20 million APY (average per year) mark in 2022, Chris Godwin posted two consecutive seasons with over 80 catches and over 1,000 yards. With an exploding wide receiver market that has just seen 11 players sign new or modified contracts with an APY of 20 million or more, including three that hit 30 million, expect Godwin to command 20 million per year again.

My current projections have Godwin earning an APY of $22.25 million over three years for a total of $66.75 million with about $44.5 million guaranteed if he maintains his current level of production in his contract year of 2024.

Instead of simply maintaining this level of production, Godwin exceeds it.

This only increases its price.

A comparable wide receiver contract is the three-year, $70 million deal that Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. signed in March. His APY of $23.33 million is slightly higher and could be a better base for Godwin given his good start.

Both have achieved almost the same level of production over the last three seasons:

Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. – 2021-2023:

296 receptions, 3,159 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – 2021-2023:

285 pass catches, 3,150 yards gained, 10 touchdowns

Godwin has already reached the end zone twice this year. Let’s assume he reaches the end zone even more in his contract year and finishes the game with 100 pass catches for 1,200 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, then his numbers from the last three seasons look even better.

287 pass catches, 3,247 yards gained, 13 touchdowns

Even if Godwin falls short of projected performance and maintains his three-year average over the next 15 games, his performance in Weeks 1 and 2 alone improves his APY estimate by $500,000.

Not a bad raise for two weeks of work.

In terms of catches, receiving yards and touchdowns, both have a similar play style as high-volume receivers with comparable explosiveness. Even in Dave Canales’ offense last year, Godwin had 15 explosive plays (passes of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ yards), which is 18% of his 83 receptions. Pittman had 10 such plays, or 9% of his 109 receptions.

This makes up for the fact that the Bucs’ star wide receiver is about three years older and makes it easier to believe that this is the stadium Godwin will be playing in when it’s time to sit down at the negotiating table.

Pittman’s contract came with a salary cap hit of $255 million and took up about 9% of the Colts’ salary cap space. With the salary cap expected to be around $275 million next year, Godwin will get a slight raise. According to Queipo’s revised contract calculations, that would equate to a three-year, $75 million deal with an APR of $25 million or a four-year, $101 million deal with an APR of $25.25 million.

Given this situation, would the Bucs be willing to do this?

There is a lot to consider when it comes to the Bucs re-signing Chris Godwin

After re-signing the consistent Mike Evans for two years and $41 million in the offseason, the Bucs were able to secure a wide receiver for over $20 million a year.

Would management be willing to do the same with Chris Godwin?

Spending more than $40 million on two wide receivers who are (Evans) or nearly 30 years old (Godwin) is a tough decision. The duo have been among the best in the NFL since the latter joined the team, but Tampa Bay could choose to continue to go younger and cheaper and spend the money elsewhere.

The team drafted Jalen McMillan in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and after an impressive training camp and preseason, he could take over the No. 2 wide receiver role as soon as next year. If the Bucs decide to keep McMillan as the No. 3 wide receiver and draft another young top wideout to take Godwin’s place, the 2025 NFL Draft offers plenty of big names to choose from.

Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, Missouri’s Luther Burden III and Colorado’s Travis Hunter likely won’t be available when it’s their turn. Other names to watch include Stanford’s Eric Ayomanor, Ole Miss’ Tre Harris and Antwane “Juice” Wells Jr. among other things.

The flip side of this argument is that with $28,296,524 in salary flexibilityThe Bucs could afford to keep Godwin and make other changes thanks to the magic crown and the wizardry of assistant general manager Mike Greenberg.

The biggest free agents alongside him next season include outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and inside linebackers Lavonte David and KJ Britt. None of them are expected to bring in “big” money, and since David will be 35 by then, he could decide to hang on to them or extend them with an affordable one-year deal.

The re-signing of Godwin also extends the wide receiver’s established playing time in Tampa Bay, as Evans is a few years older and probably hang them in front of him. Having Godwin there to take over the No. 1 wide receiver duties when the time comes isn’t a bad contingency plan for the future and would guarantee that one of them would be there for the entire term of quarterback Baker Mayfield’s contract.

With the Bucs focused on developing young playersThe move could continue by allowing Chris Godwin to leave as a free agent. However, given Godwin’s performance earlier this season, Tampa Bay can easily afford to add him to their plans.

As always, time will tell more about what the future holds.