Over the years, PFF’s data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While much of that foundational work continues to shape discussions and inform analysis today, the focus here is on figuring out how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have missed.
Some bets will be based on traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we are taking advantage of the most appropriate markets for a particular thesis or angle.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line could neutralize the Chicago Bears run defense
The Colts face a tough task this week: The Bears’ run defense has been one of the best in the NFL since the start of 2023, ranking in the top three in both EPA per rush allowed and rushing success rate allowed.
The market seems to expect a decline in the Colts’ mileage, because Jonathan TaylorThe current rushing prop is set significantly lower than in his first two weeks, although he easily surpassed it last week.
However, not all matchups are created equal. In this showdown, the underlying data suggests that the Colts’ blocking efficiency should allow them to overcome Chicago’s strong run defense.
Because PFF tracks every play on every snap, we can measure “perfect blocks” where no offensive lineman misses his assignment. Several years ago, we found that perfectly blocked runs are among the most valuable plays in football. For teams like the Colts, who excel in this area, perfect block rates tend to be sustainable and as close to “matchup-proof” as you’ll find in the NFL.
Not only do the Colts have a high rate of perfect blocks, they also win after contact, which strengthens their position as a rushing attack.
Suggested bets: It may not be the most exciting approach, but in a matchup of evenly matched teams, the underlying metrics favor the Colts. The market seems to reflect that, and I’ll be betting on Taylor’s yardage and on plays where the Colts dominate on the ground.
Click here to see more bets for this match
Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud analyzes the Minnesota Vikings’ zone coverage and blitz packages
With Brian Flores at the helm, the Vikings have become one of the most blitz-heavy and zone-dependent defenses in the NFL. After two strong performances in a row, the market is starting to buy the Vikings’ defense, which is reflected in the overall results of their games. However, these two areas – zone coverage and blitz – are exactly where CJ Stroud has distinguished itself.
Stroud was below average in man coverage. But he was one of the best players in the NFL in zone coverage. Not only is Stroud consistent from start to finish against zone defenses, but he is also the second best player in explosive play, throwing an explosive pass nearly 12% of the time when playing in zone coverage.
Stroud has also shined against the blitz, earning the eighth-highest PFF grade in such situations, compared to 13th without the blitz. His efficiency, as measured by EPA, also improves against blitz-heavy defenses. Additionally, Stroud has a greater tendency to make explosive plays when blitzed, even when accounting for the higher explosive base play rate that blitzing naturally allows.
Suggested bets: After a rough showing on Sunday Night Football, I’m betting on Stroud in this matchup that I think is perceived to be more difficult than it actually is. Minnesota’s defensive tendencies directly benefit Stroud, making this an opportunity for a great performance. I’ll bet on Stroud’s passing overs, his alternate passing yards, and the Texans’ team totals.
