The Colts' opposing quarterback in Week 3: An analysis by Caleb Williams

Thanks to the nflFastR Project and NFL NextGen Stats for the current data sources.

For those of you new to this, I will be posting key QB stats each week that judge the performance of the upcoming opposing QB. Yes, O-line, receivers and plays impact these numbers, but they are primarily QB measures. I will likely change the charts as the season progresses. Comments will be brief, but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (Click on charts to enlarge)

DASHBOARD

The Bears hope to finally have a replacement for Sid Luckman in their first round, but Caleb Williams has had a rough time in the first two games. With any developing QB, it’s hard to predict how he will perform in the future, let alone next week. But that doesn’t stop me from analyzing his performances so far.

arsr,
IT,
opd,
sg%,
Ounces%,
%,
ttt,
adot,
yes/c,
cmp%,
cpo,
yac,
Subscribe,
ypa,
scr%,
t%,
sck%,
aa%,
Yes,
ny/d,
1.%,
td%,
To%,
epa/d,
psr

The Bears’ running game has not been good, so they rely heavily on Williams (25th arsr, 6th edp) in their pass-first offense.
They frequently use him as a shotgun player, and although he faces an above-average number of zone looks, he is not forced to go down as often as other quarterbacks (10th sg%, 15th oz%).
He faces a lot of pressure, which forces him to get rid of the ball quicker than average (10th pr%, 26th ttt). Those numbers suggest a terrible O-line defense, and a 30th-ranked Pass Block Win Rate would agree.
Despite not having much time, Williams is throwing above-average long attempts (14th aDOT), but his terrible accuracy means he only scores on the shorter ones (30th cpoe, 31st ay/c).
Poor accuracy usually means poor YAC, and that’s the case here. When factoring in depth, the Bears receivers have the 8th lowest YAC (25th Yacoe).
Poor accuracy + short finishes + poor YAC = terrible yardage efficiency (31st ypa).
To make matters worse, Williams allows a lot of passes, mostly via sacks (5th AA%, 2nd SACK%). His lack of protection is certainly a big factor here, but he needs to get better at trading sacks for scrambles/throw-aways.
The three-way combination of poor yardage efficiency, high break-up rate and many sacks means that the Bears only achieve 3.5 yards with their average passing game (31st ny/d).
With such low yardage gains, he does not manage any first downs and that leads to 0 TDs this year (30. 1%, 32. TD-%). ~~Good~~ The good news is that his turnover rate is below average…just (17th out of 100%).

Add all that together and you get 30th in value per game (EPA/d) and 28th in success rate (PSR). In other words, the Bears have one of the worst passing offenses in the league…yes, worse than the Colts.

I will state the obvious that Williams has only played two games, so by no means am I saying he is a bad quarterback or a failure or anything like that. For all I know, he could end up being one of the best quarterbacks of all time. I am simply saying that his performance in his first two games is on the low side compared to everyone else. The point of these stats is to identify weaknesses in his game and monitor them to see if/when he improves.

HOW WELL?

There’s not much to see here with only 2 games, but his performance is clearly far, far, far below average.

HOW FAR?

His passing depth was average, but his finishing depth was poor both weeks.

No one has fewer completed air yards per attempt.

FOR WHOM?

One good thing is that he distributes the ball well, but DJ Moore is the clear number 1.

Your receivers should be in the upper right quadrant, and I don’t see any bears there.

HOW EXACTLY?

His accuracy improved to about average in Week 2. If he continues this trend, it solves a lot of problems.

His long passes are practically non-existent, he manages 1 out of 13 passes over 13 meters.

HOW FAST?

He had to throw the ball even faster in Week 2 and didn’t lose any of his passing depth, which is good. If the Bears’ front line can get its act together, he should have more time to improve his overall game.

Although he has one of the fastest throw times in the league, it’s still over 2.5 seconds, and the average NFL pass play is far more successful when executed within 2.5 seconds. This is true for all quarterbacks, not just Williams. Holding onto the ball longer is an NFL trend that has contributed to the decline in pass production.

WHERE?

There is not much to say here. Misery is everywhere in the field.