Sunday Night Baseball: Mets vs. Mariners:
Primetime on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball will focus on the interleague games that pit the Mets against the Mariners. It’s the series finale at T-Mobile Park for two playoff contenders, as the Mariners enter today’s game three games back of a wild card spot and the Mets are a half-game behind the rival Braves and one point behind in the loss standings.
It will be a Luis versus Luis duel, as Severino will play for the NL team and Castillo for the AL team.
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How to watch the Mets vs. Mariners game
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday, August 11, 7:10 p.m. ET
Mets vs. Mariners MLB Odds
New York Mets +114 // Seattle Mariners -135
In total: 7.5 (-115/-105)
Game Preview Mets vs. Mariners
The Mariners won the first two games of this series. In fact, the Mets have not scored a single point in this series. Seattle leads 10-0 overall after winning by six points on Friday and four on Saturday. New York scored nine runs in Colorado on Thursday but none in the ninth, making their scoreless streak 19 innings into tonight.
The Mets have actually failed to score a game 10 times this season, but this is the first time they have gone two games in a row without a score since April 3 and 4 of last season. They went two days without a score against the Braves on August 11 and 12, but Game 1 of a doubleheader occurred between the two losses.
So the Mariners will turn to Castillo in hopes of getting more zeros. He has a 3.48 ERA with a 3.81 xERA and a 3.57 FIP in 142.1 innings in 24 starts, but that’s only part of the story. He has a 2.95 ERA and has held opponents at home to a .271 wOBA in 79.1 innings with an 85/14 K/BB ratio. His away numbers in 63 innings are still decent, but nowhere near as good as his performance in exhibition games.
Based on these numbers, it might be difficult for the Mets to score runs again. Castillo has only allowed more than three runs twice, but he also had only two clean sheets at home.
Severino has been a godsend for the Mets in a year where Kodai Senga only made one start and the rotation was in upheaval. His 4.06 ERA isn’t exactly stellar and his 4.38 FIP certainly isn’t, but his 128.2 innings and 22 starts are his best since 2018. He has a 3.92 xERA, so he’s been a little unlucky at times, but he’s kept the ball in the park well and worked around the lowest K% of his career.
Sevy’s last start was at Colorado, where he allowed five runs on eight hits. In his previous start with the Twins, he allowed six runs in just three innings, so I think I’m concerned he’s reaching his limits with the increased workload. He hasn’t had a game with a double-digit swinging strike rate since May, so it’s all down to luck with the batted balls for him.
And that’s not what I like about this matchup, because the Mariners are a team that is held back by a lot of misses and misfires. If they can put more balls in play, like any offense can, they’ll be more successful. The type of wins haven’t taxed the Mariners’ bullpen too much, and Castillo is as solid as anyone at home.
Selection: Mariners -135
Mets vs. Mariners Player Props
Luis Severino under 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
We’re putting a small price here, but the Mariners face inflated pitcher strikeout totals on a daily basis in the betting market due to their penchant for generating wind power. They lead the league with a 27.7% K%, but also have a 9.1% BB% because they’re in deep counts. Not only could that increase Severino’s pitch count and lead to a five-and-fly start, but he’s just not a guy who causes a lot of mishits. He’s stayed under 5.5 in 15 of 22 starts. To their credit, the M’s dropped their K% to 25.7% in the second half. Plus, they don’t get as much national attention to be on ESPN often, and I think that will put them under more pressure.
JD Martinez under 0.5 hits (+120)
I had success with one of these last week, with Brandon Donovan at a plus price, and another here. Castillo isn’t just dominant at home, he’s dominant against righties everywhere. Righties have a slash of .198/.247/.309 against him with a wOBA of .246. He has a K% of 28.7% this split, and righties at T-Mobile Park are hitting .170/.210/.245 with a wOBA of .203 and a K% of 33.3% in 168 batting appearances.
Martinez has a 29.4% K% against righties this season with a .251 BA. However, he only has a .238 batting average against RHP with a 30.7% K% over the last 30 days. He has a 10.7% BB%, so a walk is possible (+235), but overall he only has a .207 batting average here in August. Hitting in deep counts forces guys to protect and swing at borderline pitches they can’t really hit. I think that’s worth considering here with the veteran DH.
