A tropical storm—or hurricane—could form in the Gulf of Mexico later this week, and there are some clues as to where it might be headed.
The National Hurricane Center monitored a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean on Monday that is expected to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next few days.
Meteorologists expect the storm to move northward and reach the southern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
Numerous forecast models predict that the system will approach the northern or eastern Gulf Coast of the United States – somewhere between Mississippi and the Florida peninsula (including Alabama) – late this week or over the weekend.
The hurricane center urged people along the northern and eastern Gulf Coast to check their hurricane supplies and make sure their plans are in order should the storm reach them.
On Monday, forecasters were predicting a possible landfall somewhere in Florida, between the Panhandle and the Big Bend. However, it should be emphasized that this could still change, as the disturbance was still in its formation phase.
The disturbance is currently designated Invest 97L, but could develop into Tropical Storm Helene if it develops a defined circulation center and has winds of 39 mph or more.
“Although the exact path is not yet determined at this time, forecasters are fairly consistent that 97L is likely to make landfall somewhere along the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area on its final path, and given favorable conditions, there is a good chance it will make landfall as a hurricane,” the National Weather Service in Mobile said in its forecast briefing Monday morning.
But that doesn’t mean people along the Alabama coast can relax and unwind. As a disturbance develops, many things can change, especially the forecast path. The hurricane center urged people along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast to monitor the forecast closely this week.
The weather service said areas along the Alabama coast won’t feel any impact from the storm until midweek at the earliest. Rain will be possible throughout the week, but the approaching storm likely won’t seriously worsen the weather until Thursday.
Meteorologists expect rough seas and deadly rip currents to develop along the coast, especially later this week.
“It is too early to determine details about the final storm track and intensity, storm surge, winds and precipitation amounts,” the weather service said Monday. “We will continue to monitor this potential system over the next few days. It is important not to focus on individual model forecasts.”
The weather service also pointed out that many models predict a large storm that could spread the storm over a wide area – and not just where the center hits land.
The hurricane center said areas on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula could be affected first by the storm and that tropical storm warnings could be issued for that area as well as western Cuba later in the day.
So far in 2024, there have been seven named storms in the Atlantic. Four of them – Beryl, Debby, Ernesto and Francine – developed into hurricanes. Three of these four (Beryl, Debby and Francine) hit the Gulf Coast.
The Atlantic hurricane season is currently in its most active phase. The last day of the season will be November 30th.
