The National Hurricane Center is tracking a system in the Gulf of Mexico that could strengthen into a tropical storm in the next few days.
According to a warning from the hurricane center early Monday morning, the system, designated Invest 97L, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are “only beginning to show signs of organization with a broad low-pressure system” over the northwestern Caribbean. If the system forms, the storm would be named Helene.
The NHC said environmental conditions appeared favorable for the system’s continued development and that “a tropical depression or storm is likely to develop over the next few days” as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
“Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall over parts of Central America over the next few days,” the NHC warning said, while noting that stakeholders in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the development of this system.
The system is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Stakeholders along the northeast Gulf Coast should also monitor the system closely, according to the NHC.
Interesting facts about the weather: Hurricane threat on the Gulf Coast, storms predicted in the east
Another storm may be brewing in the Eastern Atlantic
The NHC also said on Monday that it was monitoring a tropical wave between West Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, causing “erratic rain and thunderstorm activity.”
According to the Hurricane Center, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle or later this week as the system moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The NHC gives the system a 70 percent chance of forming over the next seven days.
Storm tracker for Atlantic and Gulf
Invest in 97L spaghetti models
The figures show a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are the same. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models for its forecasts.
Tropical Storm John triggers warnings for parts of southern Mexico
Tropical Storm John was located about 210 kilometers south of Punta Maldonado early Monday morning, according to an NHC warning, with maximum sustained winds of 72 km/h. The Mexican government subsequently issued a hurricane warning and a tropical storm warning for the coast of Mexico between Punta Maldonado and Bahias de Huatulco.
John is moving north-northeast at about 3 miles per hour, the NHC said, and is expected to move slowly north-northeast or northeast over the next few days.
The storm is expected to approach the southern coast of Mexico in the next day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Wednesday. The NHC said John is also expected to strengthen in the next day or two and could become a hurricane before making landfall.
The NHC is forecasting rainfall of between 15 and 30 centimeters, with isolated rainfall of up to 38 centimeters in the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the coast from Oaxaca to southeastern Guerrero, rainfall of between 25 and 50 centimeters is also expected through Thursday, with isolated rainfall of up to 76 centimeters.
“These heavy rains are likely to cause significant and potentially catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeastern Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast,” the NHC said Monday.
Tropical Storm Tracker John
Spaghetti models of Tropical Storm John
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on X. @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].
