Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, currently located over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean, is expected to strengthen over the next few days as it moves toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Residents of the northern Gulf Coast, particularly in the Florida Panhandle, should prepare now for potentially life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds and heavy rains through mid-week.
At 11 a.m. EDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at 17.6 N, 82.0 W, about 130 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman and 350 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. The disturbance is moving north at 6 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and a central pressure of 1004 mb, or 29.65 inches of mercury.
A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Tulum and for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Rio Lagartos to Tulum and for parts of Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, Artemisa and Pinar del Rio.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to strengthen as it moves north-northwestward on Tuesday, and continue to accelerate northward on Wednesday. On this trajectory, the system is expected to reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by mid-week, where it is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. There is a small chance that the storm will strengthen enough to reach major hurricane strength by Thursday as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.
Residents of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast, particularly in the Florida Panhandle and parts of Florida’s west coast, are at increasing risk of severe impacts such as storm surge and hurricane-force winds. However, it is still too early to determine the exact landfall location and storm intensity. Stay up to date on the latest forecasts and check hurricane preparedness plans now.
Heavy rainfall is also a significant threat. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands, with isolated totals of up to 12 inches possible. The eastern Yucatan Peninsula could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain, with more than 6 inches locally. These heavy rainfall events may cause flash flooding, urban flooding, and minor river flooding.
Rainfall will spread to the southeastern United States by Wednesday. From Florida, flash flooding and river flooding are possible in parts of the southeast through Friday.
Storm surge:
- A storm surge could cause water levels on the south coast of Pinar del Rio, including the Isle of Youth, to rise by 60 to 120 centimeters above normal tide levels.
- Storm surges of 60 to 120 centimeters above ground level could also occur on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas with offshore winds.
Winds:
- Hurricane force winds (> 120 km/h) are possible in the warning areas until Wednesday morning.
- Tropical storm conditions (63-127 km/h) are expected in the warning areas from Tuesday.
It has been an active tropical season so far, with several named storms already hitting the Atlantic basin. Meteorologists at WeatherBug, in collaboration with experts at AEM, are predicting an extremely eventful season with 20 to 26 named storms, 9 to 13 hurricanes, and 5 to 7 major hurricanes.
As it gets hotter this time of year, be sure to have your hurricane kit ready, which includes essentials like portable cell phone chargers, water, non-perishable food, and batteries. Check out evacuation routes from your area, and keep an eye on WeatherBug for the latest updates on PTC9 and other storms this season.
