Have you ever heard of a “desired path”? It’s one of those things that you’ll immediately recognize when I tell you about it, but you may not have known that it’s been “discussed” so often that it has its own Wikipedia page and subreddit. I mention it because this concept is a nearly perfect metaphor for the inadequacies of Jed Hoyer’s front office and the most recent version of the Chicago Cubs.

What is a dream path?

In short, the term describes an unplanned path created as a more direct connection between two points. Desired paths are usually more efficient (or desirable), even if they bypass the intentionally constructed solution.

Here is a real-life example, including a sign designed to prevent pedestrians from taking the desired path:

Pretty perfect example.

So what does this have to do with the Chicago Cubs and why am I mentioning it today?

To this day, Jed Hoyer’s entire organizational philosophy and general team-building strategy is analogous to the path the planners WANTED people to take – the paved path on the right that looks nice and neat with its right angles and red bricks and runs perfectly parallel to the short fence on the side. This is how smart people have built paths for years! And IN THEORETICAL terms, it is the right way to do it! It looks good and feels right. It is safe and smart. And so it is the book says it should be so.

The path of dreams, on the other hand, is somewhat similar to the philosophical approach of the Cubs’ next opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies, who are on the verge of winning the NL East title.

That’s what got me thinking about all these things today.

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies

This week, the Phillies will welcome the Cubs to Citizens Bank Park, the second-best record in MLB and the best World Series odds of any National League team. And they’re doing it one year after reaching the NLCS and two years after reaching the World Series. But of course, they didn’t do it the “right way.” They didn’t follow the modern book.

The Phillies have made bold trades, signing expensive star players like Bryce Harper ($330 million), Trea Turner ($300 million), Aaron Nola ($172 million), JT Realmuto ($115.5 million), Zack Wheeler ($42 million/year), Nick Castellanos ($100 million), and Kyle Schwarber ($79 million) in consecutive offseasons. The Phillies have thrown caution to the wind when it comes to expected value on defense or just the long-term stability of the organization (whatever that means to fans). And you know what? They’re getting rewarded for it. And so are their fans.

Critics might look at the prospects they gave away, the draft picks they lost to qualified free agents, the “above-market” deals they signed, or the positional overlap as reasons to believe a downturn is coming. And maybe it is. Maybe. But I can tell you — with certainty — that the Cubs have not made the playoffs since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. So I ask, “Why are three years of POTENTIAL badness for the Phillies three years after Now more important than the three years of unequivocal badness we just witnessed as the Chicago Cubs underwent their second restructuring?

Someone from the Cubs front office could tell you that the Cubs will have a better chance Maintenance (or at least stave off the next downturn…). And again, maybe that’s true. But it’s just not a guarantee. In fact, most of the time, baseball just doesn’t work that way. Ask the Chicago White Sox, whose young, affordable, and controllable core was the envy of the league just a few years ago. Or, heck, ask the Chicago Cubs, who were world champions in 2016.

I am not saying that sustainability is a myth or even unimportant. In fact, I believe it should be PART of the overall calculation. But too often in the recent past, it has seemed that sustainability has been treated as both (1) the end goal and (2) a guarantee. I don’t agree with either of them.

For those who would simply call this a “shortcut,” there is an important difference here.

I am absolutely NOT saying that the Phillies or any other team that operates like this (the Padres or the Mets, to name other examples) are taking a shortcut – at least not in a derogatory sense. Desired paths are not only Shortcuts. They are often simply more efficient ways to reach the desired destination. And more importantly, they take into account the actual goal/use case of THE WALKER (i.e. the fans).

Because sometimes a plan makes sense when the architect puts it on paper in his big city office, but in practice…

So that’s why I’m appealing to Jed Hoyer and the Chicago Cubs this offseason: Don’t play the odds. Stop trying to be perfect. And start thinking about and acting on what your actual consumers (Cubs fans, potential Marquee Sports Network subscribers… ) can be seen here.

We all understand what you were trying to accomplish with the second major organizational overhaul in less than 15 years, but sustainability and efficiency should be little more than variables to consider along the way, not the goals in and of themselves. That’s not something we trailblazers pay some of the highest prices in MLB for. And, more importantly, there’s no guarantee it will work anyway.

So give up the bookForget the best practices. And follow the path you want. Sometimes that’s just better.