It is August, which means Gold Derby has opened its Oscar predictions section to experts and readers. It’s always interesting to see how the race is shaping up this early in the season.
These are pretty accurate rankings – you can see them below this article – and probably the same ten nominees I’d predict today, but maybe not in the same order. Obviously, with Venice/Telluride/TIFF, predictions will change drastically in the coming weeks and months.
The first results for Best Picture are in and A24’s “Sing Sing” is at the top of the list. Will it stay there? The prison drama premiered quietly at TIFF last year and had a slow release this summer. I wasn’t a fan of the film, but the reviews were good (84 on Metacritic). Given the relatively low attention, you would never guess that “Sing Sing” is already in its fifth week of release.
“Sing Sing,” starring Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, tells the story of an incarcerated theater troupe that puts on a play as part of a rehabilitation program. Greg Kwedar (“Jockey”) directed “Sing Sing” and co-wrote the play with Clint Bentley.
Outside of expert circles, nobody really talks about “Sing Sing”. The film also had little success at the box office and only recorded $821,862 so far in his run.
The commercial and critical success of Dune: Part Two has seen it enter the Gold Derby charts at number 2, just behind Sing Sing. For me, Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi epic is the real frontrunner. It’s very hard to believe that it’s not at number 1. On the other hand, looking at Predictions of other expertsincluding “Next Best Picture” and “Oscar Expert,” and “Sing Sing” is also right at the top. Just imagine.
I’m not entirely sure I’d rate Steve McQueen’s Blitz (3rd) as highly as the GD experts – my own assessment is based on the limited festival attention it has received. I can see it making the final 10 nominees, but I just can’t imagine it being a serious contender. We should note that the film is set to premiere at London’s BFI Film Festival in October, and no film nominated for Best Picture has ever had its world premiere at the festival.
Gold Derby’s top 10 is rounded out by “Anora,” “Emilia Perez,” “Joker: Folie a Deux,” “Nickel Boys,” “Gladiator II,” and “The Piano Lesson.”
