There is a lot of debate about who should be president of the United States. But whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, both will need Alaska’s natural gas. Rather than a long pipeline through Canada, a dense, large-diameter, high-pressure gas pipeline to Anchorage would be a better idea. There, gases and liquids would be separated and liquefied natural gas (LNG) would be produced. The LNG could then be transported to California and other locations via existing reversible pipelines inland. Also to Japan, current Japanese LNG imports from the Middle East could be routed to the east coast of the 48 states. This would also result in some Japanese financing.

Then both natural gas and propane could be used by existing cars and trucks in Alaska by simply converting them to one or the other fuel, as is done in many parts of the world. The propane could be transported to coastal villages, or by river from Fairbanks to inland villages, and even by road or rail to Tok, Glenallen, or Seward, to name a few. In addition, long above-ground pipes could transport the gas as far as Fort Yukon. The propane could also be shipped and sold in the Lower 48.

Such a project does not in any way diminish the need for renewable energy in Alaska and the Lower 48. It’s just that the transition to renewable energy takes time, and relatively cheap oil and gas can help the economy make the transition faster than it otherwise would. In fact, the transition will require a lot of mined minerals, which will require a roadside and roadside natural gas pipeline to the Ambler Mining District. Then a densely phased trans-Alaskan natural gas pipeline would become all the more important to Alaskans and the Alaska mining industry to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.

The election debate, even referring to Kamala Harris, is now saying that the Joe Biden administration has driven up oil and gasoline prices, which in turn has contributed to general inflation. Interestingly, in 2016, due to an economic slowdown in China, oil prices fell to about $41 a barrel and shale oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 declined. Then, when oil prices rose 20% to $51 a barrel in 2017, shale oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 rose a remarkable 10%. In 2020, due to COVID-19, oil prices fell to about $42 a barrel and shale oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 declined. Then oil prices rose a whopping 70% to $75 a barrel, but shale oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 continued to decline, in stark contrast to 2017. That can only mean one thing: shale oil in the U.S. Lower 48 has peaked in production and will soon enter a devastating decline, as a new academic article of mine shows.

Conventional oil production in the U.S. has long since passed its 1970 peak, shale oil production in the lower 48 U.S. has peaked, and oil production in the deep U.S. and Alaska is limited. Peak oil production in the U.S. is imminent, and production is set to decline much more than in the 1970s. As famous geologist M. King Hubbert predicted back in 1956, shale oil production in the lower 48 U.S. will soon decline much faster than conventional oil production in the lower 48 did in 1970. While renewable energy and electric vehicles will help overcome an oil crisis, the economy may need even more solutions. By using renewable energy to electrolyze water into hydrogen gas, existing cars and trucks with internal combustion engines can run on clean hydrogen gas from combustion instead of gasoline and diesel. This can also counteract global warming.

Douglas B. Reynolds, Ph.D., was Professor of Petroleum and Energy Economics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks for 23 years and has studied the oil, gas and energy industries of Alaska and the world for over 30 years. His latest book, Energy Odyssey: The Hubbert Trojan Horse Scenario, explains many of our energy dilemmas. He can be reached at [email protected].

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