Note: Walmart’s fiscal year 2024 ended in January 2024.

Walmart (NYSE: WMT), the world’s largest retailer (by revenue) that operates discount stores, supercenters, neighborhood markets, and Sam’s Club warehouse stores, is set to report its fiscal second quarter earnings on Thursday, August 15. We expect WMT stock to likely show little to no movement, with revenue coming in above expectations but earnings coming in just below expectations in fiscal second quarter results. It should be noted that Walmart currently has $46.9 billion in debt and $9.4 billion in cash. With financing rates significantly higher than in previous years, this significant debt not only increases long-term risk for the retailer but also interest costs. In addition, the company reported slowing U.S. comparable sales growth throughout fiscal 2024. The Company reported comparable sales growth in the United States of 7.4% in the first quarter of 2024, followed by 6.4% in the second quarter of 2024, 4.9% in the third quarter of 2024, and 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2024. In addition, the Company’s comparable sales were 3.8% in the first quarter of 2025, following the downturn trend.

Looking ahead, Walmart expects fiscal 2025 revenue growth slightly above its guidance range of 3% to 4% year-over-year. The company also expects full-year adjusted earnings per share at the high end of its previous guidance of $2.23 to $2.37 post-split – representing up to a 7% increase from fiscal 2024. The company announced a 3-for-1 stock split in February 2024. WMT stock is up 32% year-to-date. By comparison, shares of WMT rival Target (NYSE: TGT) have fallen 5% to $135 over the same period.

WMT stock has seen extremely strong gains of 55% from $45 in early January 2021 to around $70 now, compared to a rise of about 40% for the S&P 500 over that roughly 3-year period. However, WMT stock’s rise has been far from consistent. The stock’s returns were 2% in 2021, 0% in 2022, and 13% in 2023. In comparison, the S&P 500’s returns were 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 24% in 2023 – suggesting that WMT lagged behind the S&P in 2021 and 2023.

Actually, consistently beats the S&P 500 – for better or for worse – has been difficult for individual stocks in recent years; for other heavyweights in the consumer staples sector such as PG, COST and KO and even for megacap stars GOOG, TSLA and MSFT. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio with a collection of 30 stocks outperformed the S&P 500 every year in the same period. Why is that? As a group, the HQ portfolio stocks delivered better returns with less risk compared to the benchmark index; less of a rollercoaster ride as shown by the HQ portfolio performance metrics. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment with high oil prices and elevated interest rates, could WMT find itself in a similar situation as it did in 2021 and 2023 and perform worse than the S&P in the next 12 months – or will there be a sharp jump?

Our forecast shows Walmart valued at $67 per share, nearly 3% below the current market price. Check out our interactive dashboard analysis at WMT earnings preview: What awaits us in the second quarter? for further details.

(1) Sales revenue expected to be slightly above consensus estimates

Trefis estimates Walmart’s second-quarter 2025 revenue will be about $171 billion, slightly above the consensus estimate. In the first quarter, the company’s revenue increased 6% year over year to $161.5 billion, with store sales up nearly 4%. E-commerce revenue increased 21% year over year, up 280 basis points year over year, led by store pickup and delivery and the marketplace. In addition, WMT’s global advertising business grew about 24% during the quarter, including 26% for Walmart Connect in the U.S. We forecast Walmart’s sales for fiscal year 2025 will be approximately $633.7 billion, an increase of 4% over the previous year.

(2) Earnings per share are expected to be just below consensus estimates

WMT’s earnings per share are expected to be $0.63 in the second quarter of 2025, slightly below the consensus estimate, according to Trefis analysis. The retailer’s adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.60, up 24% year over year, due to growth in operating income (up nearly 10%)

(3) Share price estimate in line with the current market price

Based on Walmart’s valuation with an EPS estimate of around $2.44 and a P/E ratio of 27.5 in fiscal 2025, this equates to a price of $67, which is almost equal to the current market price.

It’s helpful to see how the competition is doing. WMT Peers shows how Walmart’s stock compares to other companies on key metrics. For more valuable comparisons for companies across industries, see Peer Comparisons.

Investing with Trefis Market-beating portfolios

See all Trefis Price estimates