The average mortgage payment in the U.S. has fallen to nearly $250 below its spring peak due to falling mortgage rates. While Redfin agents report a slight increase in showings, home sales are down 5% year over year.
The average housing payment for U.S. homebuyers has fallen to its lowest level since February. Weekly average Mortgage interest rates fall her lowest level in over a year. The typical home buyer’s payment was $2,588 for the four weeks ended Aug. 11, nearly $250 below April’s all-time high and just 1% higher than a year ago – the smallest increase in five years. There are also some other encouraging signs for today’s buyers: The total number of homes for sale is up nearly 20% year over year, and an increasing share of inventory is stalegiving some buyers the opportunity to negotiate. Additionally, less than 30% of homes are selling above list price, compared to 35% a year ago.
Despite falling costs and rising inventory, home sales have yet to improve: Home sales are down 5.1% year-over-year, the largest decline since November (excluding the previous 4-week period, which saw a 6.2% decline). There are several reasons why buyers aren’t seizing the opportunity to take advantage of falling mortgage rates. Although home prices have fallen from their July peak, they are still near record highs. In addition, due to economic and political uncertainty surrounding the presidential election, some potential buyers are waiting to see whether mortgage rates will fall even further and whether the U.S. will enter an official recession.
There are some signs that more and more home seekers are starting to buy their own home. Mortgage purchase applications are +3% Week by week on a seasonally adjusted basis. And Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a Requests for showings and other buying services from Redfin agents fell 10% year over year, but that’s the smallest decline since April.
“I was hoping more buyers would show up when mortgage rates start to drop. And while home searches have picked up a bit, the increase isn’t too significant,” said Brynn Rea, a Redfin Premier agent in Spokane, WA. “Budget is usually the most important factor for buyers, and homes are still very expensive for a lot of people. Many buyers are waiting to see if mortgage rates continue to fall as the Fed cuts rates, and what happens with the economy and the election later in the year.”
This week’s CPI report shows that inflation becomes softerStrengthening the Expectation The Fed will begin cutting rates in September, but it’s unclear by how much. Markets have priced in expectations of aggressive rate cuts. If the Fed doesn’t meet those expectations, rates could rise a bit, but if it cuts as quickly as markets hope — or even faster — mortgage rates will have more room to move lower. And if falling rates boost demand, that could drive up home prices.
For more information on Redfin economists’ views on the housing market, visit Redfin’s “From our economists” Page.
Leading indicators
| Indicators of demand and activity in home buying | ||||
| Value (if applicable) | Last updated | Change from previous year | source | |
| Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.49% (14 August) | Close to the lowest level since spring 2023, but higher than the low of 6.34% about a week earlier | Decrease of 7.24% | Daily mortgage news |
| Weekly average of 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate | 6.47% (week ending August 8) | Lowest level in over a year; down from 7.22% in early May | Decrease of 6.96% | Freddie Mac |
| Mortgage purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) | 3% more than in the previous week (as of week ending August 9) | Decrease of 8% | Association of Mortgage Banks | |
| Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) | Essentially unchanged from the previous month (as of week ending August 11) | Decrease of 10% | Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for viewings and other homebuying services from Redfin agents | |
| Touring activity | 10% more than at the beginning of the year (as of August 11) | At this time last year, the figure since the beginning of 2023 was 7% | Display timea home touring technology company | |
| Google searches for “house for sale” | 11% more than in the previous month (as of August 12) | Decrease of 3% | Google Trends | |
Important data on the housing market
| US highlights: Four weeks until August 11, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data from over 400 U.S. metropolitan areas and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly real estate market data goes back to 2015. Subject to change. |
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| Four weeks until August 11, 2024 | Change from previous year | Notes | |
| Average selling price | 389,250 USD | 3.4% | Slight increase compared to the previous week, but $6,750 below the all-time high of the four weeks ending July 7 |
| Average offer price | 398,248 USD | 5.9% | Biggest increase since October 2022 |
| Average monthly mortgage payment | $2,588 at a mortgage rate of 6.47% | 0.7% | Lowest since February; $244 below the all-time high of the 4 weeks ending April 28 |
| Pending Sales | 82,160 | -5.1% | Biggest decline since November 2023, excluding the previous 4-week period when there was a 6.2% decline |
| New listings | 92,476 | 4.5% | |
| Active offers | 1,005,700 | 18.9% | |
| Months of delivery | 3.6 | +0.7 points. | 4 to 5 Months supply is considered balanced, with a lower value indicating the seller’s market conditions. |
| Percentage of homes taken off the market within two weeks | 37.1% | Decrease of 43% | |
| Average days on market | 35 | +6 days | |
| Share of houses sold above list price | 29.6% | Decreased by 35% | |
| Share of houses with price decline | 7% | +1.8 points. | Close to the highest level ever recorded |
| Average ratio of selling price to list price | 99.3% | -0.5 points. | |
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Highlights at Metro level: Four weeks until August 11, 2024 Redfin’s metropolitan-level data includes the 50 most populous metropolitan areas in the United States. Select metropolitan areas may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolises with the largest increases compared to the previous year | Metropolises with the largest declines compared to the previous year | Notes | |
| Average selling price | Philadelphia (12.5%)
Detroit (12.4%) Anaheim, California (11.2%) Newark, NJ (10.3%) New Brunswick, NJ (10.1%) |
Austin, Texas (-3%)
Tampa, FL (-1.3%) San Antonio, Texas (-1.3%) |
Rejected in 3 metropolises |
| Pending Sales | San Francisco (20.4%)
Cincinnati (10.4%) Sacramento, California (10.2%) Los Angeles (7.5%) San Jose, California (6.8%) |
Houston (-20.6%)
Atlanta (-17.1%) Tampa, FL (-15.7%) Minneapolis (-12.9%) West Palm Beach, FL (-12.5%) |
Increased in 9 metropolises |
| New listings | Cincinnati (20.7%)
San Jose, California (19%) Sacramento, California (18.2%) Baltimore (17.2%) San Diego (17.1%) |
Atlanta (-16%)
Austin, Texas (-5.4%) Chicago (-3.9%) Portland, Oregon (-3.8%) Nassau County, NY (-3.1%) |
Rejected in 11 cities |
Please note our Metric definition page for explanations of all key figures used in this report.
