Since there are only seven games being played today, we don’t have a huge MLB betting offering available.
That said, there are still a ton of good MLB player props to look at, and we finally dipped our toe into the home run market, so here are our favorite MLB home run picks today.
Corey Seager Home Run (+340) FanDuel
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers, 8:10 p.m. ET
Seager has been on top form over the past two weeks and has a great matchup tonight against Bailey Ober of the Twins. Over the past 14 days, Seager has hit eight home runs, which is the second most in the MLB at this stage. Only Jake Burger is ahead of him with nine. Seager also has the fourth most hard hit line drive + fly balls with 17 total.
He has also beaten right-handed pitchers, which is not unusual for the left-handed Seager. Five of his eight home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, and in the last two weeks against RHP he has a batting average of .343 with a barrel rate of 14.29%, a hard hit rate of 53.33% and an ISO rate of .457.
He’s been hitting right-handed pitchers and now has the advantage of facing Ober, a pitcher Seager should have the advantage over. Ober predominantly throws 4-seam fastballs (37% of the time), changeups (35%) and cutters (15%), and Seager has smashed all three of those pitches.
All five home runs he’s hit against right-handers over the past two weeks have come off those pitches, with his two best pitches being 4-seamers and cutters. His full season ISO rate against 4-seamers is .333, and he has a .302 ISO rate against cutters.
Anthony Santander Home Run (+400) BetMGM
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET
Like Seager, Santander has been on a tear over the past month and we expect that trend to continue today.
Over the last 30 days, Santander has hit 12 home runs, which is second in the MLB during that time period, only better than Burger with 13. Santander has also hit the fifth-most hard-hit line drive and fly balls and is tied for most batted balls (over 100 mph off the bat and 20-40 degree launch angles).
The beauty of backing Santander is that he’s a switch hitter who has essentially the same power whether he’s batting right or left handed. That means the opposing pitcher’s handedness has no impact on his ability to gain a yard. This year, Santander’s ISO rate is exactly .293 against RHP and LHP.
As for pitching opponents, he’s facing Nick Pivetta, who isn’t a terrible pitcher but likes to throw fastballs (52% of the time) against left-handed pitchers, and fastballs are considered home run-friendly pitches.
It’s no different for Santander, who has good power numbers against 4-seam fastballs. This year he has a .273 ISO rate against 4-seamers, and in the last month that has increased to .290, with a barrel rate of 12.90% and a hard hit rate of 50%.
Jackson Holliday Home Run (+900) Caesars
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET
These are great opportunities for Holliday, who has been in top form over the past few weeks and is another Orioles hitter who hits the 4-seam fastball very well.
Holliday had problems hitting when he was first called up in April, and was sent back to the minor leagues after 10 games, but since being called back up on July 31, he has been much, much better.
Since then, he’s hit five home runs, four of them against right-handers. Since July 31, he has a .343 ISO rate, 11.43% barrel rate and 56% hard hit rate against RHP. Holliday hits 4-seam fastballs similarly well, with a 16.67% barrel rate and 75% hard hit rate specifically against RHP 4-seamers over the last month.
Bonus: Gunnar Henderson Home Run (+550) Bet365
If you stuck around to the end, here’s a bonus home run prediction for Gunnar Henderson. The odds for all three guys on the Orioles are so good that they’re all worth a mention, especially when they’re going up against a fastball pitcher like Pivetta.
Newsweek may receive an affiliate commission when you sign up using the links in this article. Please see the sportsbook’s terms and conditions for important details. Sportsbooks have no influence on newsroom coverage.
