On Wednesday night, the Phillies finally got the big hit and the extra runs that had eluded them during a four-game losing streak, their second long losing streak in less than three weeks.
Kyle Schwarber and a late rally rescued them from another early deficit, while the starting lineup’s problems continued. Tyler Phillips returned to form after a rocky first inning, but allowed five runs in 4⅓ innings.
The Phillies’ rotation had a 3.20 ERA through July 12, by far the best in baseball. Since then, it has a 4.90 ERA, which ranks 19th and drops it to 3.53 for the season.
The Phils did everything well in the first half, but were led by the starters. Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez shined, and Aaron Nola could have joined them in the All-Star game with a record of 11-4, 3.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
Since the break, Wheeler has pitched well and Kolby Allard has had a few short, solid starts, but the rest of the rotation has slacked off. The general theme has been a lack of control — the at-bats were mostly not good at-bats, they caught too many balls.
“I drop back and leave the balls over the middle of the field, and the guys take advantage of that,” Phillips said Wednesday night, a description that could apply to most of the staff over the past five cycles.
“I just have to get my sharpness back. Go out there and throw strikes. Do what makes me good. Use the sinker, get ahead of the guys and throw the ball to contact.”
The rookie, who exceeded expectations in his first four appearances, was not alone. Nola’s command has not been good. Sanchez has a 6.11 ERA since the break and often missed the center with his sinker on Sunday in Arizona while setting career highs in runs (7) and hits allowed (12). Suarez was forced to start just once because of a lower back injury.
At 70-50, the Phillies still have a 98.7% chance of making the playoffs after their long dry spell. As has been the case all summer, October is the only month that really matters. If Suarez is healthy again and pitches like he did in April and May, and if Sanchez and Nola are closer to their form from the first half, the Phils have a great chance of going far again.
If they have a reliable option for six or seven innings in Wheeler alone by October, they could quickly be out of the running in the NLDS.
They’re getting healthier, at least. Suarez could be back by the end of next week. Taijuan Walker returned on Tuesday, and while he probably won’t play a role in the postseason, he’ll eat up innings in eight or nine starts.
The Phils have Wheeler starting Thursday night against the Nationals. It’s a good matchup for him against a weaker offense that often tries to steal the win. Wheeler controls the running game as well as any right-handed hitter by varying his times at bat and, most importantly, limiting the number of baserunners overall. Since 2020, teams have stolen just 20 of 33 bases against him, an average of four successful swipes per year.
