Climate change refers to long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Such changes can be natural, caused by changes in solar activity or large volcanic eruptions,
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But since the 19th century, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.
The burning of fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases that act like a blanket around the earth: they trap the sun’s heat and thus increase temperatures.
There are some basic, well-established scientific links:
The concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere is directly related to the average global temperature on Earth.
Since the Industrial Revolution, this concentration has steadily increased, along with the global average temperature.
The most common greenhouse gas (CO2), which accounts for about two-thirds of all greenhouse gases, is largely produced by the combustion of fossil fuels.
The UN Environment Programme’s new emissions report finds that progress has been made since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. At the time the agreement was adopted, greenhouse gas emissions were projected to increase by 16 percent in 2030 based on current policies. Today, the projected increase is 3 percent. However, greenhouse gas emissions projected for 2030 still need to fall by 28 percent if the Paris Agreement is to achieve a 2-degree target, and by 42 percent if it is to achieve a 1.5-degree target.
Global warming of 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels is due to the burning of fossil fuels and unequal, unsustainable energy and land use for over a century. This has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, causing dangerous impacts on nature and people around the world.
Any increase in warming will lead to rapidly increasing hazards, such as more intense heatwaves, heavier precipitation and other weather extremes, which increase risks to human health and ecosystems. Climate-related food and water shortages are expected to increase with warming. When these risks are combined with other adverse events, such as pandemics or conflicts, they become even more difficult to manage.
To close the gap between existing adaptation and what is needed, accelerated action on climate change adaptation is essential this decade. Limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will require deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors. Emissions should be declining by now and will need to be cut by almost half by 2030 if warming is to be limited to 1.5°C.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide an objective source of scientific information.
According to the Synthesis Report of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, there are numerous feasible and effective options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to human-induced climate change, and these are available now. The IPCC proposes “climate-resilient development” that combines climate change adaptation measures with measures to reduce or avoid greenhouse gas emissions that deliver broader benefits.
For example, access to clean energy and clean technologies can improve health, especially for women and children. Low-carbon electrification, walking, cycling and public transport can improve air quality, improve health and employment opportunities and ensure equity. The economic benefits to people’s health from improvements in air quality alone would be about equal to, or possibly even greater than, the costs of reducing or avoiding emissions.
As global warming increases, climate-resilient development becomes increasingly difficult. Therefore, the decisions made in the coming years will play a crucial role in determining the future of our planet and future generations.
To be effective, these decisions must be rooted in our diverse values, worldviews and knowledge, including scientific evidence, indigenous knowledge and local knowledge. This approach will facilitate climate-resilient development and enable locally appropriate, socially acceptable solutions.
What we know from the IPCC reports:
It is clear that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land. There have been widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and biosphere.
The magnitude of recent changes in the entire climate system – and the current state of many aspects of the climate system – are unprecedented over many centuries to many millennia.
About 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in areas that are particularly vulnerable to climate change.
The vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change varies considerably between and within regions.
If global warming temporarily exceeds 1.5°C in the coming decades or beyond, many human and natural systems will face additional serious risks compared to temperatures below 1.5°C.
In October 2018, the IPCC published a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C. It found that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes across all sectors of society. The report concluded that limiting global warming to 1.5°C could bring clear benefits for people and natural ecosystems compared to 2°C, while ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society. While previous estimates focused on estimating the damage caused by a 2°C increase in average temperatures, this report shows that many of the negative impacts of climate change will materialise at the 1.5°C mark.
The report also highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C or more. For example, global sea level rise by 2100 would be 10 cm less at global warming of 1.5°C than at global warming of 2°C. At global warming of 1.5°C, the probability of an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer would be once per century, compared with at least once per decade at 2°C. At global warming of 1.5°C, coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent, while at 2°C virtually all (>99 percent) would be lost.
The report concludes that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require “rapid and far-reaching” changes in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and reach “net zero” by 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be offset by removing CO2 from the air.
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