Player traits can be useful in a variety of ways, from direct use to measuring a player’s performance potential in Daily Fantasy Baseball on FanDuel.
Here we focus on the former, especially home run props.
Using our home run predictions (provided by numberFire) as a guide, here are some MLB home run prop bets that look attractive based on the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting odds and our MLB predictions may change throughout the day after this article is published. Weather may also be an issue in some locations.
Today’s best home run props
Luke Raley hits a home run (+440)
Luke Raley has quietly developed into one of the league’s tougher opponents against right-handers, so don’t expect him to hit a home run today.
The Seattle Mariners will face the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Pittsburgh sends Jake Woodford to the mound. The sinkerballer hasn’t had much success with the sinker lately, though. He’s allowed a 42.5% fly ball rate and a 40.0% hard hit rate – a scary prospect when we know the strikeout potential (13.7%) won’t be there.
In addition, Woodford is replaced by the eighth-worst bullpen in the MLB over the last 30 days according to xFIP. (4.47)
Meanwhile, Mariners left-hander Raley has posted an OPS of .877, an ISO of .310, a fly ball rate of 50.0% and a hard hit rate of 41.9% over the past 30 days, totaling 51 plate appearances (PAs).
Raley caught my eye in our daily MLB predictions with such a striking 0.27 home run projection. If accurate, that would be +323 odds to hit a home run and he’s arguably Seattle’s best profile to hit a home run overall.
Jackson Merrill hits a home run (+420)
I have a .500 batting average and I credit Jackson Merrill with one home run in the last eight days – and he almost did the same.
Against right-handed pitchers, Merrill is batting in the majors with a 1.074 OPS, .377 ISO, 51.9% fly ball rate and 47.3% hard hit rate. The San Diego Padres outfielder has yet to hit a home run during this weekend series at Coors Field, but if he’s hitting this many balls, it’s only a matter of time.
MLB’s best park for hitters allows me to excuse a more ambiguous matchup than I’d normally target for a bombshell. Bradley Blalock’s home run avoidance at altitude in Triple-A (1.08 HR/9 allowed) was actually pretty good, but Blalock’s 50.0% fly ball and 50.0% hard hit rate he’s allowed in 2.9 innings so far sounds more like a dong waiting to happen. Colorado’s bullpen (4.50 xFIP over the last 30 days) isn’t much better behind him.
Some Padres have trimmed their home run bets heading into this matchup, but Merrill still shows value in FanDuel Research’s projections. With a median expected home runs of 0.21, we’d put him at more like +428 for a blowout win.
Trevor Larnach hits a home run (+500)
Let’s see if we can snatch a home run from Tyler Mahle The Time.
After allowing 1.75 home runs/9 with the Minnesota Twins last year, Mahle hasn’t been hit by a home run in 9.2 innings. Still, his 4.50 Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) and 46.4% fly ball rate don’t seem to be the prerequisites for a pitcher to remain perfect in that regard. Who better to break the trend than his former team?
There are some Twins currently crushing right-handed hitters, but I think Trevor Larnach might be a bit undervalued compared to his teammates to get a wide out in front of Mahle. Over the last 30 days, Larnach’s .822 OPS, .212 ISO, 52.4% fly ball rate, and 45.2% hard hit rate against right-handed hitters are right up there with Royce Lewis and the now-injured Byron Buxton on his club.
The same goes for his projection in our model. We have Larnach at 0.30 average home runs today, which if accurate is about +286 odds to hit a bomb. If you make any picks from today’s article, the projections are accurate for this guy.
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The author named above is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. Advice provided by the author does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice does not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.
