Say goodbye to the offseason. Say goodbye to sifting through transfers, injuries, and fall camp notes. There are real college football games happening this weekend. And while there are only two FBS vs. FBS games—one of which will be played in Ireland—they’re real, and I couldn’t be more excited.
Real games mean there are games to bet on, and while the Week 0/1 markets have long been on the rise, my college football projection model still thinks there’s a little value on the board. And depending on how things play out later in the week, I might add a play to the game across the pond, so stay tuned.
Since there aren’t many games this week, I’m also adding some odds for the game of the year. For those of you who don’t know, some sportsbooks offer markets for the biggest games of the year well in advance. I think it’s worth betting on some of these, so I’ll cover them below.
Unless otherwise stated, all bets are one unit to win on the favourite and one unit to risk on the underdog. I will also publish a ‘worst bet price’, which is the last number I would bet on before the game no longer has enough value to place a bet on. If you have any questions, feel free to ask in the comments or on X/Twitter (@amock419).
Week 0 best bet
SMU at Nevada under 57.5 (-110)
My model overestimates the field goal percentage, and that’s in large part because Nevada is one of the five worst offensive teams in college football. Nevada’s offense is not rated as good, and it will be hard to score points. As for SMU, the Mustangs tended to play slower at the end of last season. Since they were favorites by over three touchdowns, I don’t expect them to play with as much tempo here. I didn’t forget the two-minute warning and did my best to adjust my scoring environment to account for the change, but with an expected blowout victory, I don’t expect it to weigh as much here.
- Worst bet price: Under 57 (-110)
Result forecasts for week 0
GO DEEPER
The Athletic 134: Ranking all teams from No. 1 Ohio State to No. 134 Kennesaw State
Best bets on look-ahead lines
Iowa State Moneyline (+116) at Iowa
I won’t believe it until I see Iowa’s offense improve. Reports from fall training camp haven’t been exactly positive for their offense, and while the defense will be top-notch again, you can’t trust a team with such a bad offense. Iowa had one of the luckiest seasons in history last year, and I think they’re on the way back.
Oklahoma +8.5 (-110) vs. Texas
That’s a high price to pay for a team that lost elite talent at wide receiver and on the interior defensive line. Quinn Ewers is good, but I’m not sure he’s great, and I have too many doubts about the performance of the returning Texas players to score more than a touchdown and a two-point conversion in the Red River Showdown.
Penn State +3.5 (-102) against Ohio State
I’m not sure Penn State will finally beat Ohio State this year, but they’ve shown they can keep it close with the Buckeyes (Ohio State has won 11 of the last 12 games in the series, but six of the last 10 have been decided by single digits). I think Penn State has upgraded at both coordinator positions, and if it weren’t for the questions along the offensive line, this would be a real hit and miss. With the teams in current shape, I don’t think Penn State should get more than a field goal at Beaver Stadium – and on the cheap!
(Photo by Preston Stone: Chris Leduc / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
