A surprise Ukrainian counterattack in the Kursk region has pushed up gas prices and raised doubts about Europe’s supply of Russian natural gas.
There are reports of ongoing conflict near the Russian border town of Sudzha, where Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a rare cross-border attack.
Pro-Kremlin war bloggers reported that Ukraine had captured the Sudzha gas distribution hub in a three-day offensive.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed that geolocated footage shows “Ukrainian forces taking Russian prisoners of war near the Sudzha border checkpoint” and that Ukrainian soldiers continued to advance rapidly into the Kursk region yesterday (8 August).
Tactical Update 🧵(1/12)
Geolocated footage and Russian claims indicate that Ukrainian forces continued rapid advances further into Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy… https://t.co/9dC8Fg0eDe pic.twitter.com/krehj0KL6c
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) August 9, 2024
A spokesman for the Ukrainian gas operator said Energy technology that since today (9 August) 10am UTC: “Gas is being transported to European customers as usual and without changes. Nominations (of 37252586.87 mÂł) have been confirmed and the physical gas flow is being maintained.”
The Sudzha station is “the only viable route for Russian pipeline gas to Europe,” says Sergey Vakulenko, Russian oil and gas analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
European gas prices rose by as much as 5.7 percent to 38.78 euros (42.35 dollars) per megawatt hour on Wednesday (August 7), surpassing the previous intraday high from June.
What is Ukraine’s goal?
Despite Europe’s efforts to punish Russia for its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, dependence on Russian energy remains.
Before the invasion, more than 40 percent of the natural gas imported into Europe came from Russia and was delivered via four major pipelines.
Following the closure of the Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe pipelines, the Ukrainian transit route has become even more important because, according to Paul Hasselbrinck, energy analyst at GlobalData, “it transports about a third of all remaining Russian gas exports to Europe.”
“The only other two available routes are the TurkStream, which runs through Turkey,” says Hasselbrinck Energy technology.
The attack on Kursk underscores that Kyiv continues to target Russia’s energy infrastructure, as a significant portion of the Kremlin’s long-term financing comes from natural gas exports.
“While destroying energy infrastructure is a worthwhile investment, Ukraine must be careful not to use its limited resources of personnel and equipment for such actions,” said James Marques, defense analyst at GlobalData.
“As with previous border crossings, it would be unwise for Ukraine to try to dig in and hold this area long-term, and I do not expect that to happen,” Marques says. Energy technology.
What is Ukraine’s military strategy?
Moscow reacted alarmingly.
President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of a “serious provocation” and the acting regional governor of Kursk declared a state of emergency necessary to “avert the consequences of an invasion of hostile forces into the region.”
Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers, 11 tanks and over 20 armored fighting vehicles entered Russia near Sudzha, killing at least five civilians and injuring 31 others, including six children, according to Russian authorities.
The military strategy behind Ukraine’s counteroffensive remains unclear.
It is also the first time since World War II that foreign forces have entered Russian territory – in Marques’ words, at least a “small propaganda victory”.
“(The incursion) is perhaps proof that Ukraine can still pose problems for Russia’s positions in Ukraine, in the hope that this will reduce the number of Russian reinforcements heading for the advance against Ukrainian lines in the east,” Marques says. Energy technology.
“However, Ukraine understands that destruction of infrastructure, strain on resources and waste of time and attention are the only real benefits that border attacks can bring and that Ukraine should therefore be cautious in the use of its limited resources. Defending the front in the east is still extremely difficult and complicated at this time.”
All eyes are now on what is likely to be a fierce Russian retaliation against Ukrainian forces both in the Kursk region and on the eastern front.
“Explanation: Prices rise as Ukrainian forces occupy key Russian gas hub” was originally created and published by Offshore Technology, a GlobalData brand.
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