Since mid-June, 18 starting pitchers have made their debut and made at least two appearances in the starting lineup. Two of them play for the Twins, and these two – David Festa and Zebby Matthews – are among the best of them all.
Festa ranks third among those 18 starters, according to FanGraphs, with a 102 Stuff+, a stat used to analyze a pitch’s characteristics and essentially aimed at determining a pitch’s viciousness. Matthews ranks sixth with a 98 Stuff+. Eno Sarris of The Athletic recently named Festa and Matthews two of the top five starters who recently debuted and have the best chances for future success.
Festa made his major league debut on June 27 and has started six times since then, compiling a 2-2 record with a 4.96 earned run average (ERA) and batting 39 runs in 32 2/3 innings.
Festa has been particularly good in his last five starts. If you ignore his first two major league starts, in which Festa allowed 16 hits and 12 runs, he’s been outstanding and has allowed just 18 hits and six runs (2.38 ERA) in 22 2/3 innings since then. And he’s only getting better.
In his three starts in August, Festa has a 2.03 ERA in 13 1/3 innings, allowing just 11 hits and three runs and striking out 18. He has allowed five walks in that span. Festa is scheduled to start Friday night’s series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals, which will be his fourth start of the month.
What was the difference? It could be that Festa threw in the zone too often in his first few starts, which is an adjustment for young starters. According to Sarris, Festa’s throws were in the zone 55% of the time in his first two starts. In his next five starts, that number dropped to 45%.
“Is this something he can keep doing? He’s gotten high marks from scouts for his command, has seen only a poor walk rate against the automated balls and strikes system in Triple-A, and passes the eye test when it comes to command,” Sarris wrote. “It looks like he has everything he needs to be successful.”
Matthews, on the other hand, is not considered as good as Festa, but he was solid in his first two starts for the Twins, going 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in 10 innings while recording six strikeouts. However, he struggled in his most recent outing against the San Diego Padres.
“In his first two starts, the young Twin has shown good command of the 91-mph cutter and 86-mph power slider,” Sarris wrote. “… He also has excellent minor league walk and strikeout numbers. Festa is probably a safer bet, but these two are an asset to the Twins’ player development.”
